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XG is not perfect/No human will make this play

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 6:54 a.m.

In Response To: XG is not perfect/No human will make this play (Phil Simborg)

When Phil first emailed me this it included XG's 3 ply analysis which had the on roll player winning 65% of the time. At the time I was out but emailed Phil and told him XG was drunk (we can smell our own) and that I'd answer later. Once home I looked at XG's analysis on all the regular plies of what it thinks the best play's (13, 1*) winning percentage is.

3 ply wins 65%
4 ply wins 41%
XGR + wins 56%
XGR++ wins 38%

Clearly with this information alone we can draw the conclusion that XG has no idea what's going on. After 13, 1* we could easily have a double and I'm not so sure about the take. To be safe, I played the game out 10 times doubling 'early' according to XG every time, sometimes going beaver/raccoon. I won 9/10 games with the 10th game being a complete fluke that XG pulled out. XG plays neither side well but the player currently owning the cube especially awful. I don't know what my PR average was in all those games but double digits were easily hit.

Stick

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