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BGonline.org Forums
Progressive Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Results - XG++ (Konstantin)
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 10:12 a.m.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 126Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=--aB-BCbC---aD-a--bbb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Original Position
1. XG Roller++ 13/12* 8/6 eq: +0,416
Player:
Opponent:60,13% (G:20,51% B:1,08%)
39,87% (G:13,25% B:0,26%)2. XG Roller++ 13/12* 12/10 eq: +0,361 (-0,055)
Player:
Opponent:59,38% (G:21,23% B:1,32%)
40,62% (G:15,95% B:0,27%)3. XG Roller++ 23/21 13/12* eq: +0,325 (-0,091)
Player:
Opponent:59,34% (G:20,30% B:1,33%)
40,66% (G:17,32% B:0,28%)4. 3-ply 13/11 13/12* eq: +0,242 (-0,174)
Player:
Opponent:57,26% (G:19,60% B:1,13%)
42,74% (G:17,93% B:0,58%)5. 1-ply 13/12* 6/4 eq: -0,010 (-0,425)
Player:
Opponent:51,89% (G:16,88% B:0,98%)
48,11% (G:23,89% B:0,92%)Above is the XGR++ evaluation (that Konstantin just posted) of the original position.
Below are rollouts of three (progressive) variants. In the first, White's 10pt blot is moved to her 9pt (one pip different). This promotes the margin of stepping up (23/21) from ¡V.091 to +.023.
In the second variant, White's 7pt is also nudged back to her 8pt. This substantially increases the margin by which Blue's stepping up is correct.
In the third/final variant, a new best play emerges. It is clearly right to volunteer an extra blot! [It is probably right even if Blue's 8pt spare is moved to his 6pt instead of 13pt, but I didn't use that position because Blue should cube before rolling.]
Nack
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 126Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-a-B-BCbC---aD--a-bbb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Variant 1
1. Rollout1 23/21 13/12* eq: +0.399
Player:
Opponent:61.03% (G:19.62% B:1.25%)
38.97% (G:14.77% B:0.21%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (+0.393...+0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes2. Rollout1 13/12* 8/6 eq: +0.376 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:59.47% (G:20.27% B:1.17%)
40.53% (G:13.91% B:0.23%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.369...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes3. Rollout1 13/12* 12/10 eq: +0.360 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:59.30% (G:21.30% B:1.49%)
40.70% (G:16.18% B:0.24%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.353...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 127Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=--aB-BCbC---aD--ab-bb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Variant 2
1. Rollout1 23/21 13/12* eq: +0.383
Player:
Opponent:60.36% (G:19.57% B:1.00%)
39.64% (G:15.43% B:0.23%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.012 (+0.371...+0.395) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 50 seconds2. Rollout1 13/12* 12/10 eq: +0.294 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:57.73% (G:21.66% B:1.32%)
42.27% (G:17.46% B:0.30%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (+0.279...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 25 seconds3. Rollout1 13/12* 8/6 eq: +0.275 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:57.60% (G:20.91% B:1.38%)
42.40% (G:17.12% B:0.28%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.262...+0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 127Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 136
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=--aB-BCbB---aE--ab-bbAb-b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Variant 3
1. Rollout1 13/11 13/12* eq: +0.279
Player:
Opponent:57.43% (G:18.81% B:1.02%)
42.57% (G:18.83% B:0.61%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.267...+0.292) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 30 seconds2. Rollout1 13/12* 12/10 eq: +0.213 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:56.54% (G:19.68% B:1.24%)
43.46% (G:20.19% B:0.32%)Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.200...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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