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Progressive Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 10:12 a.m.

In Response To: Results - XG++ (Konstantin)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB-BCbC---aD-a--bbb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position


1.XG Roller++13/12* 8/6eq: +0,416
Player:
Opponent:
60,13% (G:20,51% B:1,08%)
39,87% (G:13,25% B:0,26%)
2.XG Roller++13/12* 12/10eq: +0,361 (-0,055)
Player:
Opponent:
59,38% (G:21,23% B:1,32%)
40,62% (G:15,95% B:0,27%)
3.XG Roller++23/21 13/12* eq: +0,325 (-0,091)
Player:
Opponent:
59,34% (G:20,30% B:1,33%)
40,66% (G:17,32% B:0,28%)
4.3-ply13/11 13/12* eq: +0,242 (-0,174)
Player:
Opponent:
57,26% (G:19,60% B:1,13%)
42,74% (G:17,93% B:0,58%)
5.1-ply13/12* 6/4eq: -0,010 (-0,425)
Player:
Opponent:
51,89% (G:16,88% B:0,98%)
48,11% (G:23,89% B:0,92%)

Above is the XGR++ evaluation (that Konstantin just posted) of the original position.

Below are rollouts of three (progressive) variants. In the first, White's 10pt blot is moved to her 9pt (one pip different). This promotes the margin of stepping up (23/21) from ¡V.091 to +.023.

In the second variant, White's 7pt is also nudged back to her 8pt. This substantially increases the margin by which Blue's stepping up is correct.

In the third/final variant, a new best play emerges. It is clearly right to volunteer an extra blot! [It is probably right even if Blue's 8pt spare is moved to his 6pt instead of 13pt, but I didn't use that position because Blue should cube before rolling.]

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-BCbC---aD--a-bbb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1


1.Rollout123/21 13/12* eq: +0.399
Player:
Opponent:
61.03% (G:19.62% B:1.25%)
38.97% (G:14.77% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (+0.393...+0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.Rollout113/12* 8/6eq: +0.376 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
59.47% (G:20.27% B:1.17%)
40.53% (G:13.91% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.369...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +0.360 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
59.30% (G:21.30% B:1.49%)
40.70% (G:16.18% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.353...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB-BCbC---aD--ab-bb-bAb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2


1.Rollout123/21 13/12* eq: +0.383
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:19.57% B:1.00%)
39.64% (G:15.43% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.012 (+0.371...+0.395) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +0.294 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
57.73% (G:21.66% B:1.32%)
42.27% (G:17.46% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (+0.279...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout113/12* 8/6eq: +0.275 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
57.60% (G:20.91% B:1.38%)
42.40% (G:17.12% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.262...+0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB-BCbB---aE--ab-bbAb-b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 3


1.Rollout113/11 13/12* eq: +0.279
Player:
Opponent:
57.43% (G:18.81% B:1.02%)
42.57% (G:18.83% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.267...+0.292) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +0.213 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
56.54% (G:19.68% B:1.24%)
43.46% (G:20.19% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (+0.200...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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