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Variants (floating 12pt checker)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 5 October 2015, at 8:07 p.m.

In Response To: Results XG ++ whats your play here? four (Konstantin)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBDaB----ab--bbdBBA-a-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	22/16 8/7*	eq: +0,159
	Player: Opponent: 52,65% (G:15,58% B:0,63%) 47,35% (G:10,50% B:0,33%)
2.	XG Roller++	21/15 8/7*	eq: +0,140 (-0,020)
	Player: Opponent: 52,18% (G:16,41% B:0,74%) 47,82% (G:11,71% B:0,45%)
3.	2-ply	21/15 6/5	eq: +0,003 (-0,157)
	Player: Opponent: 49,43% (G:13,11% B:0,72%) 50,57% (G:11,36% B:0,38%)
4.	2-ply	22/15	eq: -0,001 (-0,160)
	Player: Opponent: 49,02% (G:12,09% B:0,42%) 50,98% (G:9,33% B:0,20%)
5.	2-ply	22/16 6/5	eq: -0,019 (-0,178)
	Player: Opponent: 48,74% (G:11,03% B:0,43%) 51,26% (G:9,31% B:0,19%)

The XGR++ evaluation of the original position (as posted by Konstatin) is copied above. Despite the usual suspicion of QF, it seems nobody had trouble seeing that X (hit-and-split, 22/16 8/7*) is Blue's best move. [I hope in the future that we can see a rollout for early game margins within .04 or so.]

White has a loose checker on her 12pt. What happens if we re-position it to one of the many points (including the 25pt/bar) that Blue does not already occupy? If we move it to White's 2pt, 6pt, 7pt, 8pt, 11pt, (12pt), 13pt, 14pt, 15pt, 24pt or 25pt, X is still the best play.

There are three points on which relocating White's 12pt blot creates a routine double-hit: her 9pt, 10pt and 23pt. (If White is on her 24pt, it is very close but Blue should not hit twice.)

There are four points on which relocating White's 12pt blot yields a different and instructive best play: her 16pt, 18pt, 21pt and (covering her) 1pt. See the rollouts below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 5 point match pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBDaBa----b--bbdBBA-a-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
White checker on 16pt ¡V5¡V5 [x X11] "<=5

1.	Rollout1	21/15 8/7*	eq: +0.170
	Player: Opponent: 52.58% (G:17.92% B:0.86%) 47.42% (G:11.56% B:0.56%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (+0.161...+0.179) - [96.8%] Duration: 4 hours 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/16 8/7*	eq: +0.159 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 52.35% (G:16.97% B:0.78%) 47.65% (G:10.81% B:0.38%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (+0.150...+0.167) - [3.2%] Duration: 4 hours 08 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 5 point match pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBDbB-----b--bbdBBA-a-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
White checker on 18pt ¡V5¡V5 [E=R e24 r29 iR43] "<=12*5

1.	Rollout1	22/16 6/5	eq: +0.112
	Player: Opponent: 51.88% (G:13.89% B:0.53%) 48.12% (G:9.57% B:0.34%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.107...+0.117) - [51.2%] Duration: 10 hours 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: +0.112 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 51.76% (G:14.15% B:0.53%) 48.24% (G:9.59% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.107...+0.117) - [48.8%] Duration: 10 hours 18 minutes
3.	Rollout2	21/15 6/5	eq: +0.088 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 51.25% (G:15.37% B:0.61%) 48.75% (G:11.45% B:0.40%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (+0.079...+0.096) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
4.	Rollout2	21/20 21/15	eq: +0.083 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 50.82% (G:14.41% B:0.62%) 49.18% (G:9.92% B:0.35%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (+0.075...+0.091) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
5.	Rollout2	22/16 21/20	eq: +0.069 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 50.72% (G:13.51% B:0.51%) 49.28% (G:9.45% B:0.29%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.062...+0.076) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 5 point match pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BcBDaB-----b--bbdBBA-a-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
White checker on 21pt ¡V5¡V5 [R E16 X34 e34 iR44] "<=5

1.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: +0.195
	Player: Opponent: 53.97% (G:14.51% B:0.55%) 46.03% (G:9.01% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.188...+0.202) - [99.9%] Duration: 5 hours 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/16 6/5	eq: +0.179 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 53.62% (G:14.16% B:0.54%) 46.38% (G:9.35% B:0.36%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.171...+0.186) - [0.1%] Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes
3.	Rollout1	21/15 6/5	eq: +0.161 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 53.44% (G:14.87% B:0.63%) 46.56% (G:10.82% B:0.41%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.154...+0.168) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes
4.	Rollout1	22/16 8/7*	eq: +0.161 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 52.46% (G:17.19% B:0.80%) 47.54% (G:11.06% B:0.41%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (+0.152...+0.169) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 49 minutes
5.	Rollout1	21/20 21/15	eq: +0.150 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 52.94% (G:14.45% B:0.58%) 47.06% (G:9.82% B:0.32%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (+0.143...+0.158) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 5 point match pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBDaB-----b--bbdBBA-b-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
White checker on 1pt (covering) ¡V5¡V5 [R X7 E11] "<=10*5

1.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: -0.021
	Player: Opponent: 48.87% (G:12.17% B:0.43%) 51.13% (G:11.04% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (-0.025...-0.016) - [97.0%] Duration: 8 hours 15 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/16 8/7*	eq: -0.028 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 49.33% (G:13.69% B:0.61%) 50.67% (G:14.50% B:0.43%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.034...-0.022) - [2.7%] Duration: 9 hours 12 minutes
3.	Rollout2	22/16 6/5	eq: -0.032 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 48.52% (G:12.23% B:0.47%) 51.48% (G:11.01% B:0.27%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.039...-0.026) - [0.2%] Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• whats your play here? four
  Konstantin -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 10:17 a.m.
  • whats your play here? four
    scotty -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 3:48 p.m.
  • whats your play here? four
    garyo -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 10:02 p.m.
  • whats your play here? four
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 1 October 2015, at 12:33 a.m.
  • Results XG ++ whats your play here? four
    Konstantin -- Monday, 5 October 2015, at 7:30 a.m.
    • Variants (floating 12pt checker)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 5 October 2015, at 8:07 p.m.