Three Variants

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Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 11 October 2015, at 8:31 p.m.

In Response To: 4 pips to spend - *Rollout* (Chase)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aaBB-BC---A-bBb-Ad-eB-----:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Original Position
[N E.9 P14 N.16 Y18] "<=5

1. Rollout¹ 10/8 2/1*(2) eq: +0.527
Player:
Opponent: 76.33% (G:56.73% B:1.34%)
23.67% (G:4.50% B:0.31%) Conf.: � 0.002 (+0.524...+0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 37 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 16/15 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.517 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent: 75.86% (G:54.70% B:1.49%)
24.14% (G:4.74% B:0.38%) Conf.: � 0.002 (+0.515...+0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 51 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 3/1*(2) eq: +0.512 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 75.61% (G:56.32% B:0.58%)
24.39% (G:5.00% B:0.39%) Conf.: � 0.002 (+0.510...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 10/9 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.510 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 75.52% (G:55.21% B:1.30%)
24.48% (G:4.75% B:0.33%) Conf.: � 0.002 (+0.508...+0.513) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 16/15 10/9 2/1*(2) eq: +0.509 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 75.44% (G:54.74% B:1.67%)
24.56% (G:4.74% B:0.24%) Conf.: � 0.002 (+0.507...+0.511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 59 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65309756
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Chase's rollout of his original position.
Below are three variants. In the first and second, the benefit of bearing on the open 2pt is overridden (note the efficient 66). The third variant may be instructive for anyone who over-blitzes when Gs (and BGs) pay single.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aaBB-BC---A-bBb--d-eB---A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 1
[E N6 P22 A.24 I27 E.34] "<=10*1

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 2/1*(2) eq: +0.472
Player:
Opponent: 73.61% (G:52.36% B:1.60%)
26.39% (G:4.90% B:0.40%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.471...+0.474) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 10/8 2/1*(2) eq: +0.466 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 73.32% (G:53.23% B:1.53%)
26.68% (G:5.12% B:0.41%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.465...+0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
3. Rollout² 3/1*(2) eq: +0.450 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 72.52% (G:52.78% B:0.59%)
27.48% (G:5.41% B:0.64%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.446...+0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 21 seconds
4. Rollout² 10/9 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.448 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 72.42% (G:51.52% B:2.03%)
27.58% (G:5.14% B:0.46%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (+0.442...+0.454) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 29 seconds
5. Rollout² 5/4(2) 2/1*(2) eq: +0.446 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 72.29% (G:52.36% B:1.45%)
27.71% (G:5.42% B:0.50%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.441...+0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 59 seconds
6. Rollout² 24/23 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.438 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 71.89% (G:50.63% B:1.99%)
28.11% (G:5.51% B:0.61%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.433...+0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 28 seconds
7. Rollout² 24/23 10/9 2/1*(2) eq: +0.431 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 71.56% (G:50.45% B:1.60%)
28.44% (G:5.38% B:0.51%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.426...+0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 16 seconds

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aaB-BBC---A-bBb-Ad-eB-----:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 2
[Y N1 N.11 i25 E.30] "<=10*2 1

1. Rollout¹ 16/15 10/9 2/1*(2) eq: +0.540
Player:
Opponent: 76.98% (G:54.55% B:1.45%)
23.02% (G:3.93% B:0.29%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.538...+0.541) - [86.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 01 minute
2. Rollout¹ 10/8 2/1*(2) eq: +0.538 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent: 76.92% (G:55.71% B:1.61%)
23.08% (G:3.98% B:0.34%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.537...+0.540) - [13.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes
3. Rollout² 10/9 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.529 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent: 76.45% (G:54.01% B:1.52%)
23.55% (G:4.07% B:0.25%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.526...+0.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
4. Rollout³ 4/3(2) 2/1*(2) eq: +0.515 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 75.74% (G:53.00% B:1.37%)
24.26% (G:4.00% B:0.25%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.510...+0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 45 seconds
5. Rollout³ 16/15 6/5 2/1*(2) eq: +0.509 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent: 75.47% (G:52.02% B:1.25%)
24.53% (G:4.28% B:0.52%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.505...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 09 seconds

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aa-BBBC---A-bBb-Ad-eB-----:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 3
[M P1 Z2 N7 N7 Y12 T15 E.16 N.17] "<=10*7 5*1

1. Rollout¹ 16/15 10/8 6/5 eq: +0.507
Player:
Opponent: 75.33% (G:43.14% B:6.73%)
24.67% (G:4.05% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.505...+0.509) - [72.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 3/1*(2) eq: +0.506 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent: 75.29% (G:51.87% B:1.62%)
24.71% (G:4.23% B:0.34%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.504...+0.507) - [22.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 16/15 10/7 eq: +0.505 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 75.23% (G:43.54% B:7.13%)
24.77% (G:3.96% B:0.32%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.503...+0.507) - [4.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
4. Rollout² 10/8 6/4 eq: +0.500 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent: 74.98% (G:43.28% B:6.40%)
25.02% (G:4.19% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.497...+0.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
5. Rollout² 10/7 6/5 eq: +0.499 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent: 74.97% (G:43.81% B:7.15%)
25.03% (G:3.87% B:0.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.497...+0.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
6. Rollout³ 16/15 10/9 6/4 eq: +0.494 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 74.72% (G:42.43% B:6.18%)
25.28% (G:3.61% B:0.23%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.489...+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 11 seconds
7. Rollout³ 10/6 eq: +0.491 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 74.56% (G:43.91% B:5.64%)
25.44% (G:3.73% B:0.19%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.486...+0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 45 seconds
8. Rollout³ 16/15 6/3 eq: +0.490 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 74.50% (G:40.21% B:5.65%)
25.50% (G:3.68% B:0.17%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (+0.484...+0.496) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 09 seconds
9. Rollout³ 10/9 6/3 eq: +0.489 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 74.47% (G:41.81% B:6.15%)
25.53% (G:4.36% B:0.21%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (+0.484...+0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 24 seconds

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

4 pips to spend
Chase -- Thursday, 8 October 2015, at 5:52 p.m.
- 4 pips to spend
  Mike Clapsadle -- Thursday, 8 October 2015, at 6:11 p.m.
- 4 pips to spend
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 9 October 2015, at 12:16 a.m.
- 4 pips to spend
  neilkaz -- Friday, 9 October 2015, at 2:57 p.m.
- 4 pips to spend
  ah_clem -- Friday, 9 October 2015, at 3:30 p.m.
- 4 pips to spend - *Rollout*
  Chase -- Sunday, 11 October 2015, at 1:15 a.m.
  - Three Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 11 October 2015, at 8:31 p.m.

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