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Five best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 12 October 2015, at 2:54 p.m.

In Response To: XG Rollout whats your play? seven (Konstantin)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 115
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--abBCCBBA---Ab--b-dabAa--:1:-1:-1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position
[ j J53] "<=0.6


1.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0,650
Player:
Opponent:
27,24% (G:8,03% B:0,42%)
72,76% (G:35,69% B:3,18%)
Conf.: � 0,013 (-0,662...-0,637) - [100,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 11/5eq: -0,703 (-0,053)
Player:
Opponent:
18,24% (G:2,03% B:0,05%)
81,76% (G:15,01% B:0,55%)
Conf.: � 0,008 (-0,711...-0,694) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/2 8/3* eq: -0,703 (-0,053)
Player:
Opponent:
23,73% (G:6,19% B:0,28%)
76,27% (G:31,54% B:1,52%)
4.XG Roller++11/5 6/1eq: -0,728 (-0,079)
Player:
Opponent:
18,78% (G:2,21% B:0,04%)
81,22% (G:18,53% B:0,80%)
5.XG Roller++22/16* 16/11eq: -0,750 (-0,100)
Player:
Opponent:
24,91% (G:6,48% B:0,32%)
75,09% (G:37,04% B:3,51%)
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Konstantin's rollout of his original position is shown above. (BTW, it can be misleading to compare rolled out plays with evaluated plays.)

Rollouts of four variants appear below.

Five related positions, five different best plays.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBADaB--Ba---abbcbbBA--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
[S j11 J19 K54 J79] "<=5**1


1.Rollout122/16* 16/11eq: -0.650
Player:
Opponent:
25.00% (G:7.65% B:0.57%)
75.00% (G:30.01% B:2.49%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.655...-0.645) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0.661 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.19% (G:9.71% B:0.89%)
73.81% (G:35.79% B:2.99%)
Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.667...-0.656) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout18/2 8/3* eq: -0.669 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
23.14% (G:8.51% B:0.70%)
76.86% (G:29.17% B:1.51%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.674...-0.665) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout222/16* 8/3* eq: -0.704 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
28.35% (G:10.93% B:1.02%)
71.65% (G:41.58% B:8.64%)
Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.719...-0.690) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout211/6 11/5eq: -0.730 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
17.30% (G:2.75% B:0.07%)
82.70% (G:15.53% B:0.60%)
Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.735...-0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBADaB--B----abbccbBA--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
[J J13 j39 S46 K96] "<=5*2*1


1.Rollout18/2 8/3* eq: -0.652
Player:
Opponent:
25.07% (G:7.60% B:0.33%)
74.93% (G:30.91% B:1.58%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.657...-0.648) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout111/6 11/5eq: -0.665 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
19.94% (G:3.25% B:0.09%)
80.06% (G:15.78% B:0.69%)
Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.669...-0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout211/5 8/3* eq: -0.691 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
27.38% (G:8.54% B:0.45%)
72.62% (G:39.50% B:3.92%)
Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.699...-0.683) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout222/16* 16/11eq: -0.698 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
25.66% (G:7.40% B:0.41%)
74.34% (G:35.57% B:3.30%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.705...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 48 seconds
5.Rollout322/16* 8/3* eq: -0.749 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
28.53% (G:9.46% B:0.56%)
71.47% (G:43.01% B:10.43%)
Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.762...-0.735) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBAD-B--Ba--a-bbccbBA--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 3
[J j25 A29 J83] "<=5**1


1.Rollout111/6 11/5eq: -0.693
Player:
Opponent:
18.62% (G:2.25% B:0.05%)
81.38% (G:14.62% B:0.58%)
Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.696...-0.690) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0.718 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
25.54% (G:5.94% B:0.26%)
74.46% (G:35.74% B:3.05%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.722...-0.713) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout111/5 6/1eq: -0.722 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
18.92% (G:2.53% B:0.06%)
81.08% (G:18.27% B:0.99%)
Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.725...-0.719) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
4.Rollout28/2 8/3* eq: -0.776 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
21.54% (G:4.63% B:0.19%)
78.46% (G:31.82% B:1.55%)
Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.787...-0.766) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBAD-B--Ba--babbcc-BA--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 4
[K j5 S22 J117] "<=10*5 1


1.Rollout122/16* 8/3* eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
36.26% (G:14.43% B:0.82%)
63.74% (G:32.84% B:5.72%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.361...-0.350) - [90.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0.360 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
32.96% (G:13.16% B:0.64%)
67.04% (G:26.55% B:1.81%)
Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.364...-0.356) - [9.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 13 minutes
3.Rollout222/16* 16/11eq: -0.378 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
32.92% (G:10.61% B:0.52%)
67.08% (G:25.11% B:2.02%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.383...-0.372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout38/2 8/3* eq: -0.473 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
28.64% (G:10.94% B:0.51%)
71.36% (G:25.05% B:1.10%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.482...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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