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Swingy Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2015, at 7:15 p.m.

In Response To: I feel like I've been Othello-ed **ROLLOUT** (Michael Depreli)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
7 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BAC-B---bCb-BbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout122/16 21/15 13/7(2)eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:		51.85% (G:10.86% B:0.65%)
48.15% (G:22.98% B:0.99%)		Conf.: � 0.014 (-0.053...-0.025) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout122/10 21/9eq: -0.097 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		48.63% (G:9.90% B:0.44%)
51.37% (G:16.28% B:0.50%)		Conf.: � 0.014 (-0.111...-0.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout121/9 8/2*(2) eq: -0.141 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:		45.91% (G:15.69% B:0.50%)
54.09% (G:18.03% B:0.81%)		Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.153...-0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout122/10 8/2*(2) eq: -0.150 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:		46.18% (G:14.38% B:0.50%)
53.82% (G:18.20% B:0.82%)		Conf.: � 0.013 (-0.163...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout122/16 13/7(3)eq: -0.182 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		46.96% (G:11.68% B:0.57%)
53.04% (G:18.26% B:0.50%)		Conf.: � 0.014 (-0.195...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout121/15 13/7(3)eq: -0.204 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:		47.31% (G:13.06% B:0.78%)
52.69% (G:25.34% B:1.12%)		Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.216...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds
7.Rollout122/10 13/7(2)eq: -0.214 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:		47.67% (G:12.43% B:0.91%)
52.33% (G:26.95% B:2.02%)		Conf.: � 0.014 (-0.228...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
8.Rollout113/7(2) 8/2*(2) eq: -0.244 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:		43.45% (G:15.52% B:0.79%)
56.55% (G:19.86% B:1.48%)		Conf.: � 0.015 (-0.259...-0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds
9.Rollout121/9 13/7(2)eq: -0.247 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		46.93% (G:13.07% B:0.88%)
53.07% (G:26.12% B:1.91%)		Conf.: � 0.012 (-0.260...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Above is Michael's rollout of his (Othello'ed) original position.

In the first of the two variants below, the margin between the original top two plays goes from +.058 to ¡V.169. In the second variant, the margin between the original first and third best plays goes from +.101 to ¡V.192.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
7 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BAC-B---bCb-BbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout122/10 21/9eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent:		48.15% (G:10.16% B:0.41%)
51.85% (G:16.67% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (-0.125...-0.098) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 13/7(3)eq: -0.147 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		47.90% (G:12.80% B:0.70%)
52.10% (G:19.60% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.162...-0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout122/10 13/7(2)eq: -0.251 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:		46.93% (G:12.72% B:0.99%)
53.07% (G:28.09% B:2.55%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.266...-0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
4.Rollout121/9 13/7(2)eq: -0.254 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:		46.17% (G:13.49% B:0.90%)
53.83% (G:26.24% B:2.11%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.268...-0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
5.Rollout122/16 21/15 13/7(2)eq: -0.280 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:		46.17% (G:11.54% B:0.71%)
53.83% (G:26.69% B:1.21%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (-0.293...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
7 point match
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB-AC-B---bCb-BbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout121/9 8/2*(2) eq: -0.087
Player:
Opponent:		46.88% (G:17.44% B:0.54%)
53.12% (G:19.20% B:1.01%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.101...-0.073) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout116/10(2) 8/2*(2) eq: -0.170 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		44.38% (G:17.52% B:0.71%)
55.62% (G:18.35% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.184...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout122/16 21/15 8/2*(2) eq: -0.207 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		44.85% (G:13.03% B:0.49%)
55.15% (G:19.26% B:0.75%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.012 (-0.219...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout113/7(2) 8/2*(2) eq: -0.232 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		43.60% (G:17.30% B:0.75%)
56.40% (G:21.05% B:1.87%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.247...-0.217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 18 seconds
5.Rollout122/16 13/7(3)eq: -0.247 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent:		45.10% (G:12.04% B:0.60%)
54.90% (G:20.40% B:0.63%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (-0.260...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout122/16 13/7 8/2*(2) eq: -0.254 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		42.90% (G:15.84% B:0.55%)
57.10% (G:20.57% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.269...-0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 45 seconds
7.Rollout122/16 21/15 13/7(2)eq: -0.279 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		45.54% (G:10.89% B:0.74%)
54.46% (G:25.68% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.295...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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