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Variant (better off on the bar)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 21 October 2015, at 1:43 a.m.

In Response To: Take or pass? - RO & VARIANTS (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cA-BBBB----C--bAccBb-b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.53% (G:18.07% B:0.68%)	76.63% (G:18.95% B:0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.47% (G:6.01% B:0.17%)	23.37% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.656	+1.332
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.920 (-0.080)	¡Ó0.011 (+0.909..+0.932)
Double/Take:	+1.184 (+0.184)	¡Ó0.021 (+1.163..+1.204)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 52 seconds

For wider application, I changed the score from "normal" (¡V13¡V13) to pure money. A rollout of the original position appears above. Similar result -- it is a big pass.

A variant appears below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-bA-BBBB----C--bAccBb-b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant Position

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.21% (G:17.09% B:0.70%)	73.35% (G:18.05% B:0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.79% (G:6.91% B:0.20%)	26.65% (G:7.48% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.571	+1.158
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.850 (-0.135)	¡Ó0.006 (+0.844..+0.857)
Double/Take:	+0.985	¡Ó0.009 (+0.976..+0.995)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.015)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		99.9%
Duration: 6 hours 32 minutes

Messages In This Thread

• Take or pass?
  Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 9:53 a.m.
  • Take or pass?
    scotty -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 11:44 a.m.
  • Take or pass?
    Mick Z -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 1:12 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    Alex Schofield -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Take or pass?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    MandM1951 -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    garyo -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 1:45 p.m.
  • Take or pass? - RO & VARIANTS
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 8:50 p.m.
    • Variant (better off on the bar)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 October 2015, at 1:43 a.m.