Below are three positions, which you can view sidebysidebyside if you stretch your window wide enough.
The first position appeared in Tim's post that kicked off this thread, where Blue owns his 13pt. In the second position, Blue has his 14pt. In the third position, Blue has his 15pt.
In Position 1, Blue should play in to his 6pt. In Position 2, the decision is essentially tied. In Position 3, Blue should cover his 1pt. Can you figure out why? If so, you will have learned (or reviewed) a valuable lesson.
Nack
1.  Rollout^{1}  14/6  eq: +0.367 
 Player: Opponent:  64.96% (G:25.28% B:0.20%) 35.04% (G:4.93% B:0.19%)  Conf.: � 0.007 (+0.360...+0.374)  [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  14/9 4/1  eq: +0.331 (0.036) 
 Player: Opponent:  63.76% (G:24.45% B:0.19%) 36.24% (G:4.66% B:0.18%)  Conf.: � 0.007 (+0.324...+0.338)  [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

1.  Rollout^{1}  14/6  eq: +0.311 
 Player: Opponent:  63.74% (G:22.22% B:0.21%) 36.26% (G:4.88% B:0.18%)  Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.307...+0.315)  [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  14/9 4/1  eq: +0.303 (0.008) 
 Player: Opponent:  63.21% (G:22.85% B:0.16%) 36.79% (G:4.73% B:0.16%)  Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.299...+0.306)  [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

1.  Rollout^{1}  14/9 4/1  eq: +0.213 
 Player: Opponent:  60.34% (G:21.60% B:0.19%) 39.66% (G:5.51% B:0.18%)  Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.209...+0.216)  [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  14/6  eq: +0.183 (0.030) 
 Player: Opponent:  59.81% (G:19.44% B:0.23%) 40.19% (G:5.29% B:0.17%)  Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.179...+0.186)  [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
