It's hard for me to see any human playing 4/1 here, but that is what XG 3-ply normal plays.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 1
score: 6
pip: 145 | 7 point match
Crawford | pip: 131
score: 5
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=bABBBBB-----b--a-c-bcbC-A-:0:0:1:21:5:6:1:7:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 4/1 | eq: +0.666 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.72% (G:33.56% B:1.03%)
50.28% (G:16.95% B:0.70%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 3/2 3/1 | eq: +0.610 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.55% (G:30.97% B:0.77%)
50.45% (G:14.83% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 24/23 3/1 | eq: +0.608 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.34% (G:32.04% B:1.10%)
51.66% (G:17.53% B:0.69%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 24/22 2/1 | eq: +0.492 (-0.174) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.73% (G:28.87% B:1.40%)
54.27% (G:18.01% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 6/5 6/4 | eq: +0.305 (-0.361) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.68% (G:23.56% B:0.79%)
58.32% (G:18.05% B:0.72%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
After forcing a 3-ply evaluation of the top 3 candidates:
| | White is Player 1
score: 6
pip: 145 | 7 point match
Crawford | pip: 131
score: 5
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=bABBBBB-----b--a-c-bcbC-A-:0:0:1:21:5:6:1:7:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 24/23 3/1 | eq: +0.811 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.07% (G:36.49% B:1.25%)
45.93% (G:14.63% B:0.57%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 4/1 | eq: +0.666 (-0.145) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.72% (G:33.56% B:1.03%)
50.28% (G:16.95% B:0.70%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 3/2 3/1 | eq: +0.610 (-0.201) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.55% (G:30.97% B:0.77%)
50.45% (G:14.83% B:0.44%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Rollout:
| | White is Player 1
score: 6
pip: 145 | 7 point match
Crawford | pip: 131
score: 5
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=bABBBBB-----b--a-c-bcbC-A-:0:0:1:21:5:6:1:7:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 3/1 | eq: +0.877 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.91% (G:36.94% B:3.79%)
43.09% (G:12.34% B:1.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.868...+0.886) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/1 | eq: +0.636 (-0.241) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.76% (G:32.04% B:2.41%)
50.24% (G:15.29% B:1.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.627...+0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 3/2 3/1 | eq: +0.626 (-0.251) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.58% (G:30.72% B:3.50%)
49.42% (G:12.85% B:1.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.618...+0.634) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2