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Variants (cusp-flanking)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 25 October 2015, at 1:57 a.m.

In Response To: PrimeVsPrime non commitment (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 131
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BCBB--------bdebB-A-A:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10
Blue to play 31

1.XG Roller++Bar/22 23/22eq: +0.385
Player:
Opponent:
59.04% (G:16.55% B:0.64%)
40.96% (G:11.69% B:0.42%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21eq: +0.293 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
57.00% (G:14.98% B:0.61%)
43.00% (G:12.60% B:0.43%)

Above is the XGR++ evaluation of Svilo's position.

The only way I found to make the choice close (without being more radical) is to extend White's prime.

In Variant 1 below, a spare from each of White's points is moved back to make her 9pt. That's still not quite enough to overturn the robust @ (anchor, bar/22 23/22).

Variant 2 is the same as Variant 1, except for a minor spare adjustment. That's enough to (barely) reverse the order of the best and second best play.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 136
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BCBB-------bbcdbB-A-A:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10

Variant 1


1.Rollout1Bar/22 23/22eq: -0.326
Player:
Opponent:
41.83% (G:11.89% B:0.65%)
58.17% (G:17.39% B:0.69%)
Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.332...-0.320) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21eq: -0.340 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
41.54% (G:11.01% B:0.52%)
58.46% (G:16.64% B:0.62%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.345...-0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 17 minutes
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 138
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BCBB-------bcccbB-A-A:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10

Variant 2


1.Rollout1Bar/21eq: -0.398
Player:
Opponent:
40.03% (G:10.58% B:0.52%)
59.97% (G:16.58% B:0.61%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.403...-0.393) - [95.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 23/22eq: -0.405 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:11.23% B:0.58%)
60.27% (G:17.67% B:0.64%)
Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.411...-0.399) - [4.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 53 minutes
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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