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Listen to XG or not?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2015, at 2:54 a.m.

In Response To: Listen to XG or not? (Mislav Kovacic)

Mislav Kovacic wrote:

I assumed the opponent's position was relatively easy to play and that he won't make any significant checker mistakes.

I don't understand why so many people seem to be so eager to assume both of the following simultaneously:

1. I am WAY better than my opponent.

2. Nevertheless, I'm sure my opponent will play THIS position perfectly.

Say your opponent rolls 65. Is it obvious to your opponent whether to play 7/1* 6/1 or 13/8 13/7? What about a roll of 54? Make the 2pt or clear the midpoint? Or 42? If you're confident that your opponent is not going to have any trouble with these or any subsequent decisions, then I think you should re-evaluate your assumption that you enjoy a 3PR advantage over your opponent.

Conversely, if your opponent may blunder away equity in this way, then just plugging in a MET will not accurately reflect the take/pass decision.

I would take.

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