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Listen to XG or not?

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2015, at 3:34 a.m.

In Response To: Listen to XG or not? (Timothy Chow)

Well, I never said that my opponent would play the position PERFECTLY, I just stated that it's unlikely that he would make any SIGNIFICANT checker mistakes. Just my opinion, of course.
I am talking about average lost equity here. If he were to play out the position 100 times of course he will make an occasional blunder (just like I could blunder from my side) but on average I don't think a ~7 PR player will lose a significant amount of equity in this position.
Regarding your example rolls, 65 and 54 seem to be almost equal whatever move you choose (2 down or make a point), and 42 also doesn't seem too hard for a ~7 PR player (who btw has a solid checker play and a horrible cube handling).

Anyway, the position is such a huge pass when the jac100 MET is used, that even if he does make a mistake or two along the way it should still be well within the pass territory. (if we choose to believe in Gnu's fish MET evaluation)

Would you take it because you think the opponent is likely to blunder a lot from this position or you don't believe in GNU's evaluation, or a combination of both? Or maybe some other reason?

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