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| XGID=-CEBCa-----A----A-bcbd-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Original Position (Redouble / Take) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.01% (G:0.62% B:0.00%) | 70.97% (G:0.73% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.99% (G:1.69% B:0.04%) | 29.03% (G:1.58% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.404 | +1.108 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.702 (-0.082) | �0.004 (+0.698..+0.707) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.785 | �0.006 (+0.779..+0.791) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.215) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds | ||
Above is John's rollout of the original position. Blue has a big redouble, White has an even bigger take.
[Thanks, John, for using Blue/White formatting.]
Below are three pairs of variants. (If you widen your window enough, you can view each pair side-by-side.)
If you can, imagine the original position in between the first and last position of each pair, forming a trio of (a) NO redouble, (b) Redouble / Take, (c) PASS.
Variant 1 (left-hand) and Variant 2 (right-hand) demonstrate the altered cube actions when Blue's 11pt blot is nudged (1) back 1 pip, and (2) forward 2 pips.
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| XGID=-CEBCa------A---A-bcbd-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 1 (NO Redouble) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.13% (G:0.50% B:0.00%) | 68.22% (G:0.49% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.87% (G:1.75% B:0.04%) | 31.78% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.343 | +0.969 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.643 | กำ0.005 (+0.638..+0.649) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.610 (-0.033) | กำ0.007 (+0.604..+0.617) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.357) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 44 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-CEBCa---A------A-bcbd-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 2 (PASS) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.10% (G:0.62% B:0.00%) | 74.54% (G:0.59% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.90% (G:1.07% B:0.02%) | 25.46% (G:0.98% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.475 | +1.300 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.788 (-0.212) | กำ0.002 (+0.786..+0.790) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.011 (+0.011) | กำ0.003 (+1.008..+1.014) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31027603 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 14 minutes 45 seconds | ||
Below, Variant 3 (left-hand) gives Blue his 6pt instead of his 4pt. On the surface, the 6pt may appear to be a more useful landing spot, yet the cube action changes from a blowout redouble to a wipeout NO-redouble.
On the other hand, Variant 4 (right-hand) illustrates that if Blue owns the 6pt and the 4pt, White has a PASS.
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| XGID=-CEC-aB----A----A-bcbd-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 3 (NO Redouble) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.90% (G:0.53% B:0.00%) | 66.97% (G:0.51% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.10% (G:1.56% B:0.03%) | 33.03% (G:1.65% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.322 | +0.901 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.634 | กำ0.005 (+0.629..+0.639) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.531 (-0.103) | กำ0.007 (+0.524..+0.538) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.366) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31027603 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 10 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-CCCBaB----A----A-bcbd-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 4 (PASS) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.15% (G:1.41% B:0.00%) | 75.24% (G:1.10% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.85% (G:1.71% B:0.04%) | 24.76% (G:1.61% B:0.07%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.479 | +1.329 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.782 (-0.218) | กำ0.004 (+0.779..+0.786) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.056 (+0.056) | กำ0.006 (+1.050..+1.062) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31027603 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds | ||
In Variant 5 (left-hand) below, White's checker distribution is smoothed out, and Blue should NOT redouble.
In Variant 6 (right-hand), White's distribution is less smooth, and it's a clear PASS.
The pipcount of both variants is the same as the pipcount of the original position.
Nack
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| XGID=-CEBCa-----A----A-bcbcbb--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 5 (NO Redouble) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.48% (G:0.67% B:0.00%) | 65.72% (G:0.64% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.52% (G:3.22% B:0.07%) | 34.28% (G:2.41% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.270 | +0.827 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.487 | กำ0.004 (+0.483..+0.492) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.451 (-0.036) | กำ0.005 (+0.446..+0.457) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.513) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.2% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-CEBCa-----A----A--fbc-c--:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10 | |||||
Variant 6 (PASS) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.29% (G:0.34% B:0.00%) | 75.25% (G:0.32% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.71% (G:1.30% B:0.03%) | 24.75% (G:0.94% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.491 | +1.337 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.785 (-0.215) | กำ0.003 (+0.781..+0.788) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.057 (+0.057) | กำ0.006 (+1.051..+1.062) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds | ||