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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 5 November 2015, at 12:52 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

XG correctly recubed here and I of course took. The gammonless redoubling window for the trailer ATS is from 32% to 60%. Blue only wins this thing 39% of the time, a full 21% from an efficient cube. That's usually too far away to recube unless you're either way behind in the score or if you have a lot of huge mkt losers. Here you're only behind by 1 point but most of your 11 hits are big mkt losers (remember that the leader's tp ats is 40%). I guess those hits are enough to justify an aggressive redouble ATS. Both sides g chances are small so they don't have much impact on the doubling window.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 76
5 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCBA--------acBbcb-dA-:1:1:1:00:1:2:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 37.87% (G:4.69% B:0.14%) 39.26% (G:4.05% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 62.13% (G:6.82% B:0.28%) 60.74% (G:8.91% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities -0.213 +0.000
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.058 (-0.058)±0.007 (-0.065..-0.051)
Redouble/Take:+0.000±0.009 (-0.009..+0.009)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.000)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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