[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 5 November 2015, at 2:46 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 76
5 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCBA--------acBbcb-dA-:1:1:1:00:1:2:0:5:10

Original Position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 37.87% (G:4.69% B:0.14%) 39.26% (G:4.05% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 62.13% (G:6.82% B:0.28%) 60.74% (G:8.91% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities -0.213 +0.000
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.058 (-0.058)�0.007 (-0.065..-0.051)
Redouble/Take:+0.000�0.009 (-0.009..+0.009)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.000)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds

Above is John's rollout of the original position. clear redouble.

Below are a couple of cusp variants. Any equal or greater adjustment that makes Blue weaker or White stronger, and it's no longer a redouble.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 76
5 point match
pip: 107
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CBBCB---------acBbcb-dA-:1:1:1:00:1:2:0:5:10

Variant 1... (Blue is weaker)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 37.40% (G:3.71% B:0.10%) 37.98% (G:2.56% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 62.60% (G:5.33% B:0.12%) 62.02% (G:6.79% B:0.16%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.228 -0.062
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.058กำ0.002 (-0.060..-0.056)
Redouble/Take:-0.062 (-0.004)กำ0.003 (-0.065..-0.059)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.058)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.3%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31027603
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:97.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 79
5 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCBA--------acBbdb-cA-:1:1:1:00:1:2:0:5:10

Variant 2... (White is stronger)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 35.72% (G:4.67% B:0.19%) 37.07% (G:4.01% B:0.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 64.28% (G:6.92% B:0.26%) 62.93% (G:8.66% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.257 -0.105
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.109 (-0.004)กำ0.002 (-0.111..-0.107)
Redouble/Take:-0.105กำ0.002 (-0.108..-0.103)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.105)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31027603
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:98.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.