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BGonline.org Forums
OTB & RO
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)
Date: Thursday, 5 November 2015, at 11:37 p.m.
I should have mentioned that the reason this redouble is correct is that it improves your match winning chances. If you cube now, you win the match 39.26% of the time. If you don't, you win less than that.
If you don't redouble now and miss this shot, you presumably will also not cube if you get another shot. So you'll wait until you've hit before redoubling. If this is your strategy, then you will need to hit a shot (and then cash the game) 50% of the time in order to get the same 39.26% MWC that you get by redoubling now (50% of the time you will take a 2a-3a lead with 60% MWC and the other 50% you won't hit and will trail 4a-Crawford with 18.5% MWC). This ignores both sides smallish gammon chances of course.
Since you only hit this shot 30% of the time, you will need to hit a shot on 30% of the 70% non-hitters to get to 50% hits overall. You really can't expect to get that many extra shots after missing this one so recubing now is the way to go.
Recubing now also takes away the opponent's gammons so you will be able to wait around forever on the 24-point.
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