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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2015, at 9:58 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-in vs disconnected anchors - OTB & RO (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
11 point match
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BDC-Bb---D---bacca----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10

Original Position ... [H O12 P34] "<=5


1.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0,421
Player:
Opponent:		66,86% (G:26,01% B:1,55%)
33,14% (G:5,89% B:0,23%)		Conf.: กำ 0,005 (+0,416...+0,426) - [100,0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 22 seconds
2.playedRollout113/4eq: +0,409 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:		67,28% (G:23,44% B:1,28%)
32,72% (G:5,17% B:0,19%)		Conf.: กำ 0,005 (+0,405...+0,414) - [0,0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0,387 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:		65,44% (G:26,16% B:1,21%)
34,56% (G:5,73% B:0,23%)		Conf.: กำ 0,005 (+0,382...+0,392) - [0,0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Karol's rollout of the original position.

Below are some variants that contrast the original. [That is, H (Hit, 13/8 5/1* is not the best play.] The first three involve a single checker adjustment for Blue; the fourth, fifth and sixth for White (though two of the latter three are not diagrammed).







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
11 point match
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BDC-Cb---C---bacca----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 1 ...[O P9 H30] "<=5
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 13/8


1.Rollout113/4eq: +0.454
Player:
Opponent:		68.33% (G:24.96% B:1.37%)
31.67% (G:4.66% B:0.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.449...+0.458) - [99.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0.445 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		66.74% (G:28.25% B:1.34%)
33.26% (G:4.99% B:0.22%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.440...+0.450) - [0.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0.423 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		66.48% (G:27.04% B:1.75%)
33.52% (G:5.76% B:0.26%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.418...+0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54270926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
11 point match
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BCD-Bb---D---bacca----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 2 ...[O P13 H35] "<=5
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 5/6


1.Rollout113/4eq: +0.413
Player:
Opponent:		67.70% (G:22.86% B:1.13%)
32.30% (G:5.07% B:0.21%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.408...+0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0.401 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		66.04% (G:25.59% B:1.21%)
33.96% (G:5.36% B:0.20%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.396...+0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0.378 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		65.78% (G:24.61% B:1.51%)
34.22% (G:6.35% B:0.26%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.373...+0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
11 point match
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BDD-Bb---C---bacca----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 3 ...[P H25 O32] "<=5
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 13/6


1.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0.454
Player:
Opponent:		66.40% (G:30.09% B:1.46%)
33.60% (G:4.99% B:0.20%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.450...+0.459) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 47 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0.429 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		66.29% (G:28.09% B:1.83%)
33.71% (G:5.76% B:0.26%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.424...+0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout113/4eq: +0.422 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		66.67% (G:26.10% B:1.47%)
33.33% (G:4.77% B:0.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.417...+0.427) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
11 point match
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BDC-Bb---D---bbcc-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10

Variant 4 ...[O H51 P62] "<=2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 4/7


1.Rollout113/4eq: +0.391
Player:
Opponent:		66.46% (G:23.80% B:1.13%)
33.54% (G:5.18% B:0.20%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.384...+0.398) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0.340 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		64.31% (G:25.11% B:1.44%)
35.69% (G:6.34% B:0.32%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.333...+0.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
3.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0.329 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		63.43% (G:26.45% B:1.20%)
36.57% (G:6.30% B:0.27%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.322...+0.336) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54270926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Finally, here are a couple of bonus variants not diagrammed:

Making White's 4pt with 7/4 5/4 from Variant 4 (just a 1-pip change of 5/4 from the original position) yields a result very similar to Variant 4.

Slotting 8/4 from Variant 4 (just a 1-pip change of 8/7 from the original position) produces a "tie" of [O H4 P35] "<=5.

Nactation Key: H (Hit) = 13/8 5/1*, O (Outer) = 13/4, P (Point) = 6/1* 5/1.

Nack

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