[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Three variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 12 November 2015, at 12:25 a.m.

In Response To: We have a problem with this one (Phil Simborg)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 145
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BcCBB-ABc----c-c---abA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:7:10

Original Position..... DOUBLE / TAKE


Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.74% (G:14.10% B:0.32%) 70.75% (G:14.31% B:0.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.26% (G:4.89% B:0.07%) 29.25% (G:4.88% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.510 +1.046
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.794 (-0.077)
Double/Take:+0.870
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.130)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

"We have a problem with this one."

I agree. Bot info was never posted. :)

Above is an XGR++ evaluation of the original position.

Below are three variants. White's improvement in Variant 1 keeps Blue from making a proper double. Conversely, White's weakening in Variant 2, or Blue's improvement in Variant 3, causes White to pass.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 137
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BcCBB-ABc----b-b--babA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:7:10

Variant 1.....NO DOUBLE
Compared to the original, White has made her 3pt


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.91% (G:13.61% B:0.37%) 66.06% (G:13.49% B:0.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.09% (G:8.35% B:0.20%) 33.94% (G:8.37% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.367 +0.748
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.579กำ0.006 (+0.573..+0.585)
Double/Take:+0.559 (-0.020)กำ0.007 (+0.552..+0.567)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.421)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.2%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54270926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 150
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BcCBB-ABd----b-c---abA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:7:10

Variant 2.....PASS
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 8/13


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.93% (G:16.28% B:0.33%) 72.99% (G:16.68% B:0.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.07% (G:4.71% B:0.10%) 27.01% (G:4.83% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.578 +1.194
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.858 (-0.142)กำ0.005 (+0.854..+0.863)
Double/Take:+1.023 (+0.023)กำ0.007 (+1.015..+1.030)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54270926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 30 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 145
7 point match
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BcCBC--Bc----c-c---abA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:7:10

Variant 3.....PASS
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 10/8


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.91% (G:13.94% B:0.28%) 74.39% (G:14.01% B:0.25%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.09% (G:3.49% B:0.06%) 25.61% (G:3.65% B:0.09%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.587 +1.217
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.880 (-0.120)กำ0.010 (+0.870..+0.890)
Double/Take:+1.048 (+0.048)กำ0.017 (+1.031..+1.064)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54270926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 46 minutes 45 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.