1. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.104 |
| Player: Opponent: | 52.03% (G:17.83% B:0.66%) 47.97% (G:13.81% B:0.56%) | Conf.: � 0.018 (+0.085...+0.122) - [100.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds |
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2. | Rollout2 | 21/16 13/7 | eq: +0.008 (-0.095) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.95% (G:13.74% B:0.66%) 49.05% (G:15.10% B:0.80%) | Conf.: � 0.016 (-0.008...+0.025) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 43 seconds |
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3. | 3-ply | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.096 (-0.200) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.80% (G:13.44% B:0.48%) 52.20% (G:15.05% B:0.68%) | |
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4. | 3-ply | 8/2 7/2 | eq: -0.117 (-0.221) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.08% (G:13.27% B:0.60%) 52.92% (G:14.91% B:0.55%) | |
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5. | 3-ply | 13/7 8/3 | eq: -0.175 (-0.278) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.05% (G:13.08% B:0.57%) 53.95% (G:16.89% B:0.81%) | |
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6. | 2-ply | 24/13 | eq: -0.219 (-0.323) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.08% (G:9.93% B:0.38%) 54.92% (G:15.85% B:0.55%) | |
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7. | 2-ply | 13/8 7/1* | eq: -0.246 (-0.350) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.91% (G:11.82% B:0.40%) 56.09% (G:16.68% B:0.78%) | |
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8. | 2-ply | 21/16 7/1* | eq: -0.250 (-0.354) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.64% (G:10.59% B:0.38%) 55.36% (G:17.60% B:0.84%) | |
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1 684 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Large
2 683 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Large
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Above I have copied the mixed bot info that Leobueno posted for his original position.
The first variant below (left-hand, if you widen your window enough) makes two adjustments that balance the checker distribution: (a) 8/13 for Blue and (b) 6/8 for White.
Either (a) or (b) by itself is not enough to make Z (reverse split, 21/16 13/7) better than P (Point, 7/1* 6/1). [Even Blue 6/13 by itself is not quite enough to put Z on top -- it falls short by .007, rollout not shown.]
Variant 2 (the second or right-hand position below) makes one more change, which is to nudge White's 20pt blot back to her 21pt. With that checker pushed a bit deeper, Blue's prime becomes more valuable, which adds support to Z. On the other hand, the loss of 4 duplication (13/9* and 24/20) reduces support of Z. These two effects offset each other, and the net change in the Z/P margin is a mere .009.
1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 13/7 | eq: -0.137 |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.25% (G:11.72% B:0.52%) 52.75% (G:15.30% B:0.60%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.144...-0.129) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: -0.164 (-0.028) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.47% (G:13.26% B:0.27%) 54.53% (G:14.51% B:0.57%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.171...-0.157) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 22 minutes |
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3. | Rollout2 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.236 (-0.099) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.59% (G:11.40% B:0.51%) 55.41% (G:15.34% B:0.65%) | Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.251...-0.221) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes |
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4. | Rollout2 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.273 (-0.136) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.52% (G:11.51% B:0.36%) 56.48% (G:15.98% B:0.78%) | Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.287...-0.259) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes |
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5. | Rollout2 | 8/2 7/2 | eq: -0.315 (-0.178) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.28% (G:11.61% B:0.48%) 57.72% (G:16.52% B:0.74%) | Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.329...-0.300) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes |
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1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31027603 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31027603 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 13/7 | eq: -0.164 |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.72% (G:10.36% B:0.47%) 53.28% (G:15.08% B:0.56%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.172...-0.157) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: -0.184 (-0.019) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.03% (G:13.24% B:0.30%) 54.97% (G:14.71% B:0.59%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.191...-0.176) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes |
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3. | Rollout2 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.229 (-0.065) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.05% (G:11.20% B:0.46%) 54.95% (G:15.31% B:0.68%) | Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.245...-0.213) - [0.0%] Duration: 56 minutes 31 seconds |
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4. | Rollout2 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.261 (-0.096) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.85% (G:11.69% B:0.39%) 56.15% (G:15.83% B:0.72%) | Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.275...-0.246) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 18 seconds |
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5. | Rollout2 | 8/2 7/2 | eq: -0.337 (-0.172) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.03% (G:11.72% B:0.45%) 57.97% (G:17.21% B:0.74%) | Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.350...-0.323) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 38 seconds |
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1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If White's 21pt checker is pushed back further, to her 22pt or 23pt, Blue's prime gains in value and Z easily beats P.
Nack