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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 13 November 2015, at 12:20 a.m.

In Response To: DQ: make bar point or point deep? *** Rollout *** (leobueno)





White is PERTHmakda

score: 0
pip: 157
7 point match
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is leobueno
XGID=-a---aEAD---eC---a-ebA--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:7:10

Original Position


1.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: +0.104
Player:
Opponent:
52.03% (G:17.83% B:0.66%)
47.97% (G:13.81% B:0.56%)
Conf.: � 0.018 (+0.085...+0.122) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout221/16 13/7eq: +0.008 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
50.95% (G:13.74% B:0.66%)
49.05% (G:15.10% B:0.80%)
Conf.: � 0.016 (-0.008...+0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 43 seconds
3.3-ply13/7 6/1* eq: -0.096 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:
47.80% (G:13.44% B:0.48%)
52.20% (G:15.05% B:0.68%)
4.3-ply8/2 7/2eq: -0.117 (-0.221)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:13.27% B:0.60%)
52.92% (G:14.91% B:0.55%)
5.3-ply13/7 8/3eq: -0.175 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:
46.05% (G:13.08% B:0.57%)
53.95% (G:16.89% B:0.81%)
6.2-ply24/13eq: -0.219 (-0.323)
Player:
Opponent:
45.08% (G:9.93% B:0.38%)
54.92% (G:15.85% B:0.55%)
7.2-ply13/8 7/1* eq: -0.246 (-0.350)
Player:
Opponent:
43.91% (G:11.82% B:0.40%)
56.09% (G:16.68% B:0.78%)
8.2-ply21/16 7/1* eq: -0.250 (-0.354)
Player:
Opponent:
44.64% (G:10.59% B:0.38%)
55.36% (G:17.60% B:0.84%)
1 684 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Large

2 683 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Large

Above I have copied the mixed bot info that Leobueno posted for his original position.

The first variant below (left-hand, if you widen your window enough) makes two adjustments that balance the checker distribution: (a) 8/13 for Blue and (b) 6/8 for White.

Either (a) or (b) by itself is not enough to make Z (reverse split, 21/16 13/7) better than P (Point, 7/1* 6/1). [Even Blue 6/13 by itself is not quite enough to put Z on top -- it falls short by .007, rollout not shown.]

Variant 2 (the second or right-hand position below) makes one more change, which is to nudge White's 20pt blot back to her 21pt. With that checker pushed a bit deeper, Blue's prime becomes more valuable, which adds support to Z. On the other hand, the loss of 4 duplication (13/9* and 24/20) reduces support of Z. These two effects offset each other, and the net change in the Z/P margin is a mere .009.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aEAC---eD---b-dbA--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
From the original, Blue is adjusted by 8/13 and White by 6/8


1.Rollout121/16 13/7eq: -0.137
Player:
Opponent:
47.25% (G:11.72% B:0.52%)
52.75% (G:15.30% B:0.60%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.144...-0.129) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: -0.164 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
45.47% (G:13.26% B:0.27%)
54.53% (G:14.51% B:0.57%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.171...-0.157) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -0.236 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
44.59% (G:11.40% B:0.51%)
55.41% (G:15.34% B:0.65%)
Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.251...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
4.Rollout213/7 6/1* eq: -0.273 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
43.52% (G:11.51% B:0.36%)
56.48% (G:15.98% B:0.78%)
Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.287...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
5.Rollout28/2 7/2eq: -0.315 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
42.28% (G:11.61% B:0.48%)
57.72% (G:16.52% B:0.74%)
Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.329...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31027603
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31027603
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-EAC---eD---b-dbA--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
Compared to Variant 1, White is adjusted 20/21


1.Rollout121/16 13/7eq: -0.164
Player:
Opponent:
46.72% (G:10.36% B:0.47%)
53.28% (G:15.08% B:0.56%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.172...-0.157) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
2.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: -0.184 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
45.03% (G:13.24% B:0.30%)
54.97% (G:14.71% B:0.59%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.191...-0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -0.229 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
45.05% (G:11.20% B:0.46%)
54.95% (G:15.31% B:0.68%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.245...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout213/7 6/1* eq: -0.261 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
43.85% (G:11.69% B:0.39%)
56.15% (G:15.83% B:0.72%)
Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.275...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 18 seconds
5.Rollout28/2 7/2eq: -0.337 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
42.03% (G:11.72% B:0.45%)
57.97% (G:17.21% B:0.74%)
Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.350...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 38 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

If White's 21pt checker is pushed back further, to her 22pt or 23pt, Blue's prime gains in value and Z easily beats P.

Nack

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