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BGonline.org Forums
Who is crazy here?!
Posted By: TarHeelFan In Response To: Who is crazy here?! (hominid)
Date: Friday, 13 November 2015, at 12:05 p.m.
I have read most of the posts I assume you are talking about. It was certainly not my intention to take a shot at you. I only pointed out that you didn't address the question that was asked. Maybe your EPC clue was intended to do so. If so, it was too subtle for me. I think you are spot on about wastage and the 4 point.
Unfortunately, I simply don't have time to study the game. I generally agree that XP is right the vast majority of the time, but also acknowledge that it is not perfect. In this position, the correct play looks obvious to me, but I would expect them to be close (maybe 0.030 or less). If you take the cube out of play, the difference drops well below anybody's blunder threshold. It's still higher than I would expect, but not significantly so.
Absent a compelling argument around how the cube affects the equity so dramatically, I stand by my statement that making the 3 point is not a blunder.
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