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Rollout with Blue owning the cube

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 9:09 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (neilkaz)







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Centered Cube


1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.867
Player:
Opponent:
36.06% (G:9.45% B:0.48%)
63.94% (G:35.43% B:3.78%)
Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.876...-0.857) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.894 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.45% (G:9.40% B:0.43%)
65.55% (G:35.42% B:1.17%)
Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.903...-0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.945 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
34.39% (G:7.00% B:0.36%)
65.61% (G:35.58% B:1.22%)
Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.955...-0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.978 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
33.92% (G:7.60% B:0.47%)
66.08% (G:36.56% B:1.36%)
Conf.: � 0.017 (-0.995...-0.961) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Centered Cube


1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.861
Player:
Opponent:
35.96% (G:8.79% B:0.47%)
64.04% (G:34.58% B:3.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.874...-0.847) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.906 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
34.27% (G:8.80% B:0.36%)
65.73% (G:34.95% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.919...-0.894) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2088190
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+


Neil: I think White should double after any play and after any reasonable play it is a take.

Nack: I agree. However, as I've seen XG evaluations giving different margins between plays depending upon whether the cube is centered (with the knowledge that it should definitely be turned after the move is completed) versus already turned, I decided to do a rollout for this situation to see what would happen.

Above are Tim's (5k) 3-ply/XGR and Chase's (1k) XGR+ centered-cube rollouts, for reference. My Blue-owns-cube rollout is shown below. Make of this what you will. :)






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:1:1:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Blue owns Cube


1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.429
Player:
Opponent:
36.15% (G:9.52% B:0.48%)
63.85% (G:35.48% B:3.77%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.432...-0.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.444 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
34.48% (G:9.34% B:0.42%)
65.52% (G:35.32% B:1.13%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.447...-0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.470 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
34.62% (G:6.83% B:0.34%)
65.38% (G:35.76% B:1.26%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.474...-0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
4.Rollout3Bar/14eq: -0.486 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
34.09% (G:7.57% B:0.42%)
65.91% (G:36.95% B:1.36%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.494...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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