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Rollout with Blue owning the cube

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 9:09 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (neilkaz)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Centered Cube

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/7	eq: -0.867
	Player: Opponent: 36.06% (G:9.45% B:0.48%) 63.94% (G:35.43% B:3.78%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.876...-0.857) - [100.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 02 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 8/2	eq: -0.894 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 34.45% (G:9.40% B:0.43%) 65.55% (G:35.42% B:1.17%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.903...-0.885) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 41 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 21/15	eq: -0.945 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 34.39% (G:7.00% B:0.36%) 65.61% (G:35.58% B:1.22%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.955...-0.936) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 14 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/14	eq: -0.978 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 33.92% (G:7.60% B:0.47%) 66.08% (G:36.56% B:1.36%) Conf.: � 0.017 (-0.995...-0.961) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Centered Cube

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/7	eq: -0.861
	Player: Opponent: 35.96% (G:8.79% B:0.47%) 64.04% (G:34.58% B:3.51%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.874...-0.847) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 8/2	eq: -0.906 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 34.27% (G:8.80% B:0.36%) 65.73% (G:34.95% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.919...-0.894) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
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1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2088190 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+

Neil: I think White should double after any play and after any reasonable play it is a take.

Nack: I agree. However, as I've seen XG evaluations giving different margins between plays depending upon whether the cube is centered (with the knowledge that it should definitely be turned after the move is completed) versus already turned, I decided to do a rollout for this situation to see what would happen.

Above are Tim's (5k) 3-ply/XGR and Chase's (1k) XGR+ centered-cube rollouts, for reference. My Blue-owns-cube rollout is shown below. Make of this what you will. :)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:1:1:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Blue owns Cube

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/7	eq: -0.429
	Player: Opponent: 36.15% (G:9.52% B:0.48%) 63.85% (G:35.48% B:3.77%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.432...-0.426) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 hours 09 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 8/2	eq: -0.444 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 34.48% (G:9.34% B:0.42%) 65.52% (G:35.32% B:1.13%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.447...-0.441) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 21/15	eq: -0.470 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 34.62% (G:6.83% B:0.34%) 65.38% (G:35.76% B:1.26%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (-0.474...-0.466) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
4.	Rollout3	Bar/14	eq: -0.486 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 34.09% (G:7.57% B:0.42%) 65.91% (G:36.95% B:1.36%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.494...-0.479) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 20 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

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        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 1:41 a.m.
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            gudgen -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 1:58 p.m.
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    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 15 November 2015, at 8:33 p.m.
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          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 9:09 p.m.
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            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 10:02 p.m.
            • Rollout with Blue owning the cube
              Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 18 November 2015, at 3:21 a.m.
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