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Which ghosts to be afraid of?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 21 November 2015, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: Which ghosts to be afraid of? (neilkaz)

Looking at the worst case scenarios for each play:

8/1* -- opp enters with a hit; you enter with an ace (but not 1-6). Now you still own a 6-prime compared to opp, so still in the driver's seat.

8/5, 7/4 -- opp rolls something innocuous; you roll a 6-x that blots {61,63, and worst -- 66} and opp hits. Now you no longer are leading the priming battle and in fact opp is already either escaped or at the edge of your 5-prime and you are not at the edge of his.

It's true that the 8/1* scenario listed is more likely (maybe 3::2 ratio) and of course these are just the worst case scenarios, but I think the resulting positions more than make up for this. Note the added bonus that if 8/1* works you've eliminated opp's phantom 24-point game possibilities (although he will be guaranteed a well-timed phantom 25-point game, so maybe this isn't such a bonus afterall...).

8/1*

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