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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 23 November 2015, at 2:42 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 92
15 point match
pip: 75
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCCA----a-----dbcbb--:2:1:1:34:13:9:0:15:10

Original Position


1.Rollout18/1* eq: +0.8530
Player:
Opponent:
93.10% (G:11.29% B:0.24%)
6.90% (G:0.45% B:0.09%)
Conf.: �0.0015 (+0.8515...+0.8546) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 7/3eq: +0.8390 (-0.0141)
Player:
Opponent:
92.15% (G:5.75% B:0.05%)
7.85% (G:0.20% B:0.01%)
Conf.: �0.0011 (+0.8379...+0.8401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Above is the rollout of Neil's original position (which he displayed to a fourth decimal place). The hitting play is favored by .014.

Below are contrasting variants (displayed to the third decimal place). The first two back up White a mere pip or two. The third variant further demonstrates that it matters which pips -- a back-up of 3 is required before the breakeven point is crossed.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
15 point match
pip: 75
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCCA----a----acbcbb--:2:1:1:43:13:0:0:15:10

Variant 1...White is adjusted 6/7


1.Rollout18/5 7/3eq: +0.834
Player:
Opponent:
91.96% (G:3.58% B:0.06%)
8.04% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.832...+0.837) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout18/1* eq: +0.807 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
91.52% (G:9.37% B:0.39%)
8.48% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.804...+0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
15 point match
pip: 75
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCCA----a---a-cbcbb--:2:1:1:43:13:0:0:15:10

Variant 2...White is adjusted 6/8


1.Rollout18/5 7/3eq: +0.839
Player:
Opponent:
92.33% (G:4.43% B:0.13%)
7.67% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)
Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.838...+0.841) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout18/1* eq: +0.827 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
92.28% (G:9.83% B:0.44%)
7.72% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.825...+0.830) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 95
15 point match
pip: 75
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCCA-a--------dbcbb--:2:1:1:43:13:0:0:15:10

Variant 3...White is adjusted 12/15


1.Rollout18/5 7/3eq: +0.839
Player:
Opponent:
92.25% (G:5.03% B:0.08%)
7.75% (G:0.17% B:0.01%)
Conf.: กำ 0.001 (+0.838...+0.840) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout18/1* eq: +0.836 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
92.65% (G:11.61% B:0.35%)
7.35% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.834...+0.838) - [0.1%]
Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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