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Cusp Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 7:12 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout and variant (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBCCBA-----A------abc-b-:2:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Original Position


1.Rollout113/12 7/1eq: +0.455
Player:
Opponent:		76.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.450...+0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.2 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 4/3eq: +0.414 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		74.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.410...+0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.5 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 4/3eq: +0.405 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		74.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.84% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.400...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.9 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Tim's rollout of his original position.

Below are two (cuspy) variant positions. Variant 1 factors out the 4/3 spare degradation in the original position, making the comparison of covering the 1pt versus covering the 7pt purer. (I rolled that position out both 3-ply and 4-ply, in case it made a difference.)

Cusps make excellent reference positions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBCCBA-----A------abc-b-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 1 (3-ply)
Same as the original, except Blue's roll is 51 (instead of 61)


1.Rollout113/7eq: +0.434
Player:
Opponent:		75.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.61% (G:0.20% B:0.01%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.432...+0.437) - [63.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout17/1eq: +0.434 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		75.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.432...+0.436) - [36.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBCCBA-----A------abc-b-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (4-ply)
Same as the original, except Blue's roll is 51 (instead of 61)


1.Rollout113/7eq: +0.436
Player:
Opponent:		75.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.57% (G:0.19% B:0.01%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.434...+0.438) - [74.8%]
Duration: 38 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout17/1eq: +0.435 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		75.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+0.433...+0.437) - [25.2%]
Duration: 15 minutes 38 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31961703
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 47
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBCCBA-----A------abc---:2:-1:1:61:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White has played 1/off(2)


1.Rollout113/7 4/3eq: +0.201
Player:
Opponent:		65.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.44% (G:0.53% B:0.04%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.196...+0.206) - [71.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout113/12 7/1eq: +0.199 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		65.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.195...+0.204) - [28.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: +0.188 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		66.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.99% (G:2.40% B:0.24%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.183...+0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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