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Three Additional Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 30 November 2015, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: Only 3 Ply but Much Longer RO (Colin Owen)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dD---cBe-A----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position ...(Blue has his 18pt)


1.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.2808
Player:
Opponent:
56.11% (G:17.93% B:0.89%)
43.89% (G:11.18% B:0.45%)
Conf.: �0.0040 (+0.2767...+0.2848) - [68.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.2794 (-0.0014)
Player:
Opponent:
56.46% (G:16.00% B:0.74%)
43.54% (G:10.77% B:0.42%)
Conf.: �0.0041 (+0.2753...+0.2835) - [31.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout218/14 6/5eq: +0.2690 (-0.0118)
Player:
Opponent:
56.85% (G:14.46% B:0.75%)
43.15% (G:11.10% B:0.48%)
Conf.: �0.0057 (+0.2633...+0.2747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout36/5 6/2eq: +0.2559 (-0.0249)
Player:
Opponent:
55.89% (G:15.66% B:0.71%)
44.11% (G:11.10% B:0.42%)
Conf.: �0.0089 (+0.2469...+0.2648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout48/4* 6/5eq: +0.1981 (-0.0827)
Player:
Opponent:
54.41% (G:17.30% B:0.87%)
45.59% (G:13.00% B:0.51%)
Conf.: �0.0321 (+0.1660...+0.2301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
1 23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67438092
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67438092
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67438092
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

4 288 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67438092
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Thanks to Colin for his longer rollout (copied above). In early game positions, 5k (or more) 3-ply trials is definitely better than 1k (or fewer) 4-ply trials.

Below are three related variants (viewable side-by-side-by-side if you widen your window enough). They all have different best plays from each other.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dD--Bc-e-A----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

...Variant with Blue 16pt


1.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.351
Player:
Opponent:
58.35% (G:16.15% B:0.81%)
41.65% (G:9.99% B:0.43%)
Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.343...+0.359) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.329 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
57.22% (G:18.37% B:1.05%)
42.78% (G:11.12% B:0.45%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.320...+0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.328 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
58.00% (G:15.46% B:0.71%)
42.00% (G:10.17% B:0.41%)
Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.320...+0.336) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout28/4* 6/5eq: +0.268 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
55.89% (G:16.91% B:0.83%)
44.11% (G:11.64% B:0.52%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.252...+0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31961703
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31961703
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dD-B-c-e-A----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

...Variant with Blue 15pt


1.Rollout115/11 6/5eq: +0.408
Player:
Opponent:
59.95% (G:16.88% B:0.96%)
40.05% (G:10.17% B:0.47%)
Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.402...+0.413) - [62.7%]
Duration: 15 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.406 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
59.43% (G:17.22% B:0.91%)
40.57% (G:9.94% B:0.43%)
Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.401...+0.412) - [37.3%]
Duration: 16 hours 06 minutes
3.Rollout28/4* 5/4eq: +0.388 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
58.43% (G:19.04% B:1.16%)
41.57% (G:10.69% B:0.42%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.379...+0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout26/5 6/2eq: +0.362 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
58.91% (G:15.72% B:0.76%)
41.09% (G:10.12% B:0.39%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.353...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 26 minutes
5.Rollout38/4* 6/5eq: +0.307 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
56.76% (G:16.99% B:0.93%)
43.24% (G:11.33% B:0.46%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.291...+0.322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
 
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dDB--c-e-A----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

...Variant with Blue 14pt


1.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.433
Player:
Opponent:
59.18% (G:19.88% B:1.25%)
40.82% (G:10.04% B:0.42%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.425...+0.442) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 44 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.411 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
59.64% (G:16.99% B:0.90%)
40.36% (G:9.44% B:0.35%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.402...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout26/5 6/2eq: +0.383 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
59.37% (G:16.23% B:0.77%)
40.63% (G:9.82% B:0.38%)
Conf.: กำ 0.017 (+0.366...+0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout214/10 6/5eq: +0.363 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
58.57% (G:17.30% B:0.92%)
41.43% (G:10.58% B:0.47%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.347...+0.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
5.Rollout28/4* 6/5eq: +0.353 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
57.88% (G:18.18% B:0.95%)
42.12% (G:10.86% B:0.58%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.337...+0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 

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