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Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 9:26 p.m.

In Response To: 63S-21H-31P-31P-32 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout (Taper_Mike)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-B-dC---bbe----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position.....63S-21H-31P-31P-32

1.	Rollout1	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.0341
	Player: Opponent: 49.64% (G:12.87% B:0.62%) 50.36% (G:15.20% B:0.57%) Conf.: ¡Ó0.0023 (-0.0363...-0.0318) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 hours 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.0395 (-0.0055)
	Player: Opponent: 49.11% (G:13.59% B:0.64%) 50.89% (G:14.63% B:0.61%) Conf.: ¡Ó0.0023 (-0.0418...-0.0373) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 hours 18 minutes
3.	XG Roller++	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.0784 (-0.0443)
	Player: Opponent: 48.30% (G:13.19% B:0.67%) 51.70% (G:15.21% B:0.70%)
4.	XG Roller++	24/21 6/4	eq: -0.0816 (-0.0476)
	Player: Opponent: 48.21% (G:12.73% B:0.57%) 51.79% (G:14.80% B:0.73%)
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67433306 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is mixed bot info from Mike's original position (63S-21H-31P-31P-32) copied from his post. U (Up, 24/22 24/21) tops the rollout.

In the first three variants (below), U is a significant error. The fourth variant is a three-way tie.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 168 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----D-C-B-dD---bbe----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/13

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.021
	Player: Opponent: 49.87% (G:12.76% B:0.56%) 50.13% (G:14.14% B:0.56%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.029...-0.013) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 51 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.052 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 49.42% (G:12.87% B:0.63%) 50.58% (G:15.59% B:0.74%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.060...-0.044) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 59 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.054 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 49.67% (G:11.63% B:0.58%) 50.33% (G:15.49% B:0.55%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.062...-0.046) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 48 minutes
4.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: -0.067 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 48.48% (G:13.99% B:0.74%) 51.52% (G:15.62% B:0.94%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.075...-0.058) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-B-dC---b-eb---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2.....63S-51H-31P-32P-32 Compared to the original, White has her 5pt (instead of 7pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.260
	Player: Opponent: 44.61% (G:12.08% B:0.68%) 55.39% (G:20.10% B:0.81%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.011 (-0.271...-0.249) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.307 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 44.15% (G:11.18% B:0.59%) 55.85% (G:20.46% B:0.76%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.010 (-0.317...-0.297) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/8	eq: -0.332 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 42.80% (G:12.07% B:0.63%) 57.20% (G:19.62% B:1.13%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.346...-0.317) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
4.	Rollout2	13/10 6/4	eq: -0.342 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 42.89% (G:11.74% B:0.52%) 57.11% (G:19.91% B:1.38%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.359...-0.325) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
5.	Rollout2	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.345 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 43.00% (G:11.80% B:0.71%) 57.00% (G:20.58% B:1.14%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.016 (-0.361...-0.329) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-B-dC---b-e---bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3 Compared to the original, White has her 2pt (instead of 7pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/10 6/4	eq: +0.001
	Player: Opponent: 50.82% (G:15.06% B:0.69%) 49.18% (G:17.06% B:1.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.007...+0.010) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 hours 06 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.021 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 50.03% (G:14.97% B:0.74%) 49.97% (G:16.41% B:1.05%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.028...-0.013) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 30 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.029 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 50.25% (G:13.96% B:0.73%) 49.75% (G:17.56% B:0.63%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.036...-0.021) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 46 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.069 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 49.59% (G:13.51% B:0.68%) 50.41% (G:18.60% B:0.59%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.084...-0.055) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
5.	Rollout2	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.089 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 49.10% (G:14.09% B:0.71%) 50.90% (G:19.04% B:0.85%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.106...-0.072) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-B-cC---cbe----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4.....63S-51H-31P-51P-32 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 13/8

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.156
	Player: Opponent: 46.42% (G:12.65% B:0.61%) 53.58% (G:16.76% B:0.76%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.163...-0.148) - [60.6%] Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.159 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 46.86% (G:11.78% B:0.55%) 53.14% (G:17.54% B:0.62%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.167...-0.152) - [20.1%] Duration: 4 hours 35 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/21 6/4	eq: -0.160 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 46.60% (G:12.30% B:0.58%) 53.40% (G:16.86% B:0.80%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.168...-0.151) - [19.2%] Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
4.	Rollout1	13/10 6/4	eq: -0.177 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 45.97% (G:13.32% B:0.59%) 54.03% (G:16.69% B:1.09%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.186...-0.168) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes
5.	Rollout1	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.185 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 46.13% (G:12.67% B:0.65%) 53.87% (G:17.63% B:0.90%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.193...-0.177) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
  Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 29 November 2015, at 10:12 p.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    lenny -- Sunday, 29 November 2015, at 10:56 p.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 3:20 a.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    roadkillbooks -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 8:41 a.m.
  • Just how did we get here?
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 2:17 p.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    neilkaz -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 3:43 p.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    ah_clem -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 4:10 p.m.
  • 1) Blue to play 32, and 2) How did we get here
    Wolfgang -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 8:11 p.m.
  • Retro Logic and Solution
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 1 December 2015, at 12:16 a.m.
    • 63S-21H-31P-31P-32 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 2 December 2015, at 2:38 a.m.
      • 63S-21H-31P-31P-32 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 December 2015, at 6:41 p.m.
      • Four Variants
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 9:26 p.m.