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Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 6 December 2015, at 1:44 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
3 point match
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-BBa-cC---c-eB-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Original Position.....31P-55P-44B-63R-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.70% (G:19.71% B:0.84%) 66.07% (G:20.11% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.30% (G:6.78% B:0.57%) 33.93% (G:7.18% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.517 +1.135
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.778 (-0.043)�0.010 (+0.768..+0.788)
Double/Take:+0.821�0.013 (+0.807..+0.834)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 25 seconds

Above is John's rollout of the original position. Below are three variants (two of which can be considered cusps). Match score is ¡V3¡V3 in all cases.

Take special note of Variant 1 (the first one below). Does it look stronger or weaker than the original position? You may find the tradeoff instructive.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
3 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B-aBcC---c-eB-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, Blue has his 11pt (instead of 9pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.39% (G:18.38% B:0.74%) 63.48% (G:19.37% B:1.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.61% (G:7.74% B:0.64%) 36.52% (G:9.05% B:0.95%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.432 +0.938
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.681¡Ó0.015 (+0.666..+0.696)
Double/Take:+0.630 (-0.051)¡Ó0.020 (+0.610..+0.650)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.319)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
3 point match
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-BBa-cC---c-e-Bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Variant 2.....31P-54D-43Z-65P-43Z-63R-C
Compared to the original, Blue has his 21pt (instead of 20pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.19% (G:19.75% B:1.22%) 64.34% (G:20.37% B:1.68%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.81% (G:7.72% B:0.53%) 35.66% (G:8.33% B:0.68%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.484 +1.025
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.711¡Ó0.007 (+0.704..+0.718)
Double/Take:+0.705 (-0.006)¡Ó0.010 (+0.695..+0.714)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.289)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.0%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:83.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 38 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
3 point match
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-BB-acC---c-eB-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Variant 3.....31P-55P-44B-64R-C
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 15/14


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.28% (G:18.32% B:0.83%) 64.64% (G:18.69% B:1.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.72% (G:6.71% B:0.44%) 35.36% (G:7.54% B:0.60%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.472 +1.018
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.699¡Ó0.006 (+0.693..+0.705)
Double/Take:+0.695 (-0.004)¡Ó0.009 (+0.686..+0.704)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.301)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.3%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:75.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 15 minutes

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