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What's going on here?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Sunday, 6 December 2015, at 8:48 p.m.

In Response To: What's going on here? (Chase)

White has five men back, no outfield presence, and has given up his 6pt. All those things work to his disadvantage. Despite that, his four point board and the likelihood of his hitting a shot somewhere along the way gave me pause. I tried estimating wins and gammons, but the atypical features mentioned above gave me problems. In the end, I held the cube, and things didn't clarify for me for several turns, during which I accumulated several large missed-cube errors.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--abbBD-C---BB-----Bcbc-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.22% (G:21.41% B:0.79%) 73.34% (G:21.68% B:0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.78% (G:6.36% B:0.12%) 26.66% (G:6.41% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.622 +1.253
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.921 (-0.079)±0.011 (+0.910..+0.933)
Redouble/Take:+1.067 (+0.067)±0.018 (+1.049..+1.085)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15525869
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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