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Conflicting RO, and Six Different Best Plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 7 December 2015, at 5:51 a.m.

In Response To: The answer may be a 5k RO as shown here (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB----bcbabB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position (rollout #1)


1.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.8415
Player:
Opponent:
30.79% (G:9.46% B:0.43%)
69.21% (G:23.13% B:1.32%)
Conf.: �0.0085 (-0.8500...-0.8329) - [96.4%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.8526 (-0.0112)
Player:
Opponent:
30.37% (G:8.83% B:0.49%)
69.63% (G:22.31% B:1.27%)
Conf.: �0.0087 (-0.8613...-0.8439) - [3.6%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds
3.XG Roller++23/17 10/5eq: -0.9411 (-0.0996)
Player:
Opponent:
33.46% (G:9.14% B:0.53%)
66.54% (G:33.28% B:1.87%)
4.XG Roller++10/5 8/2eq: -0.9701 (-0.1286)
Player:
Opponent:
30.03% (G:8.42% B:0.36%)
69.97% (G:26.19% B:1.72%)
5.XG Roller++23/17 8/3eq: -0.9894 (-0.1480)
Player:
Opponent:
32.27% (G:8.48% B:0.54%)
67.73% (G:32.55% B:1.76%)
6.XG Roller++13/2eq: -1.0000 (-0.1585)
Player:
Opponent:
28.02% (G:7.72% B:0.39%)
71.98% (G:25.01% B:1.70%)
7.XG Roller++13/8 10/4eq: -1.0000 (-0.1585)
Player:
Opponent:
27.14% (G:7.15% B:0.35%)
72.86% (G:24.29% B:1.43%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78623594
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB----bcbabB--:0:0:1:56:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position (rollout #2)


1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.841
Player:
Opponent:
30.60% (G:8.79% B:0.46%)
69.40% (G:22.26% B:1.30%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.850...-0.832) - [65.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.843 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
30.82% (G:9.49% B:0.41%)
69.18% (G:23.43% B:1.35%)
Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.852...-0.834) - [34.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 58 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31961703
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

There are two 5k rollouts above, both of Snua's original position. The first one was done by Neil, favoring j (jump, 10/4 8/3) over D (Down, 13/8 13/7) by .011. The second, which was done by me, disagrees, favoring D over j by .003. Averaging these two results gives j a slight lead (.004). Any other move is a whopper.

Below are six variants, each supporting a different best play. If you widen your window enough, they'll appear side-by-side-by-side, in a 3x2 grid.

[The final variant is questionable. In order to sufficiently enhance 13/2 (for which one of the respondents voted), I nudged forward checkers from both the 7pt and 6pt, beyond my usual tweaking guidelines.]

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB----bbcabB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/5


1.Rollout110/5 8/2eq: -0.729
Player:
Opponent:
33.23% (G:10.56% B:0.63%)
66.77% (G:24.57% B:1.56%)
Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.741...-0.717) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.777 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
31.75% (G:9.88% B:0.44%)
68.25% (G:22.68% B:1.27%)
Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.788...-0.765) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.780 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
31.33% (G:9.30% B:0.50%)
68.67% (G:21.97% B:1.17%)
Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.792...-0.767) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4.Rollout213/2eq: -0.801 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
32.06% (G:10.49% B:0.63%)
67.94% (G:25.03% B:1.85%)
Conf.: กำ 0.020 (-0.821...-0.782) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout213/8 10/4eq: -0.841 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
30.64% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
69.36% (G:23.16% B:1.40%)
Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.859...-0.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB-a--bbbabB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/10


1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.760
Player:
Opponent:
31.79% (G:10.17% B:0.77%)
68.21% (G:22.57% B:1.28%)
Conf.: กำ 0.021 (-0.782...-0.739) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.977 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
28.38% (G:8.75% B:0.52%)
71.62% (G:23.95% B:1.43%)
Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.995...-0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-dB----bbbabB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 3
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/13


1.Rollout123/17 8/3eq: -0.578
Player:
Opponent:
37.06% (G:11.01% B:0.81%)
62.94% (G:27.68% B:1.42%)
Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.589...-0.567) - [71.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.583 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
34.29% (G:11.17% B:0.76%)
65.71% (G:20.93% B:1.20%)
Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.593...-0.573) - [27.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
3.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.591 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
34.92% (G:11.59% B:0.75%)
65.08% (G:21.53% B:1.25%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.598...-0.584) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
4.Rollout123/17 10/5eq: -0.606 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
37.09% (G:11.37% B:0.79%)
62.91% (G:29.06% B:1.54%)
Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.616...-0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
5.Rollout210/5 8/2eq: -0.673 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
34.31% (G:11.46% B:0.79%)
65.69% (G:24.84% B:1.80%)
Conf.: กำ 0.022 (-0.695...-0.651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-dB----bcb-bB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 4
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 4/13


1.Rollout123/17 10/5eq: -0.528
Player:
Opponent:
38.29% (G:11.18% B:0.70%)
61.71% (G:27.85% B:1.47%)
Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.545...-0.511) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout123/17 8/3eq: -0.590 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
37.15% (G:11.38% B:0.77%)
62.85% (G:28.41% B:1.50%)
Conf.: กำ 0.019 (-0.609...-0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.629 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
34.47% (G:10.12% B:0.59%)
65.53% (G:20.22% B:1.12%)
Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.642...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB----bcc-bB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 5
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 4/5


1.Rollout110/4 8/3eq: -0.701
Player:
Opponent:
32.93% (G:10.03% B:0.58%)
67.07% (G:22.04% B:1.33%)
Conf.: กำ 0.019 (-0.720...-0.682) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 8/2eq: -0.784 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
32.44% (G:9.16% B:0.33%)
67.56% (G:24.38% B:1.53%)
Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.801...-0.767) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.822 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
30.70% (G:8.07% B:0.46%)
69.30% (G:20.93% B:1.17%)
Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.838...-0.806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C-A-cB-----beabB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 6
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 7/5(2) and 6/5


1.Rollout113/2eq: -0.279
Player:
Opponent:
42.46% (G:15.42% B:0.85%)
57.54% (G:21.33% B:1.46%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.286...-0.272) - [86.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.Rollout110/5 8/2eq: -0.285 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
43.20% (G:15.18% B:0.83%)
56.80% (G:21.46% B:1.26%)
Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.292...-0.278) - [13.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -0.328 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
41.20% (G:13.14% B:0.66%)
58.80% (G:19.65% B:1.03%)
Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.341...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout210/4 8/3eq: -0.358 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
40.91% (G:13.30% B:0.60%)
59.09% (G:19.45% B:1.06%)
Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.372...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 

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