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Estimating winning chances

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2015, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning chances (Chase)

I'd start with the race. Blue is down by 32 pips, or 28 after doing the Ward adjustments. 8 is the point of last take (22%) and at 2 percentage points per pip, Blue winds up with negative GWC. So this road leads to a dead end - i.e. Blue needs to hit to have more than a snowball's chance of winning.

White blots with 61, 62, and 63. That's 6/36. Blue then needs to hit, which is about 1/3 for 62 and about half for 61 and 63. So the immediate hitting chance is something like 1 1/3 out of 36.

Of course, blue doesn't always win when he hits, but he also gets a second chance shot after anything but 66 65 64 54 44 and 22. So, give him another game out of 36. Say, 2/36 after the losses after hitting.

That gives about 5 to 7% GWC.

R/P.

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