This theme occurs frequently when rolling threes with several checkers on the eight point. When is it right to waste a pip before you must? In the original position, you will waste pips clearing the ten point unless you roll four twice. This can happen. But, there's a good chance it won't. After playing 13-8, you will waste pips on all fives and sixes. Also relevant is that after keeping the checker on the 13, a subsequent six followed by an ace avoids the misses that everyone noticed. The back checker gives you more flexibility in playing large numbers. We waste a pip now that we're likely to waste later anyway.
Try to visualize the idea with this position. You probably won't roll two deuces. So, you waste one pip now with a three rather than risking wasting more later. A three played from the eight is a relatively efficient crossover in this position. Look at a roll of 54 next in both positions.
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| XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----------A--cb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 53 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 8/5 | eq: -1.5334 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/12 | eq: -1.6025 (-0.0691) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 97350134 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10