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Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2015, at 3:22 a.m.
In Response To: hit or not? why? why not? (konstantin)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 173Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBBBcBCCbcAbb:1:1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 Original Position
1. XG Roller++ 20/15 10/6 eq: +0.569
Player:
Opponent:71.77% (G:25.91% B:1.48%)
28.23% (G:3.89% B:0.16%)2. XG Roller++ 20/16 13/8 eq: +0.551 (0.018)
Player:
Opponent:71.55% (G:24.72% B:1.39%)
28.45% (G:3.85% B:0.15%)3. XG Roller++ 20/16 10/5 eq: +0.549 (0.019)
Player:
Opponent:71.11% (G:25.75% B:1.46%)
28.89% (G:4.06% B:0.16%)4. XG Roller++ 13/8 10/6 eq: +0.533 (0.036)
Player:
Opponent:69.46% (G:28.69% B:1.79%)
30.54% (G:5.01% B:0.20%)5. XG Roller++ 10/6 8/3* eq: +0.521 (0.047)
Player:
Opponent:67.01% (G:35.20% B:2.75%)
32.99% (G:7.47% B:0.38%)6. XG Roller++ 20/11 eq: +0.511 (0.058)
Player:
Opponent:70.75% (G:23.15% B:1.29%)
29.25% (G:4.33% B:0.16%)7. XG Roller++ 10/6 10/5 eq: +0.499 (0.070)
Player:
Opponent:67.62% (G:31.01% B:2.01%)
32.38% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)8. XG Roller++ 13/4 eq: +0.493 (0.075)
Player:
Opponent:68.63% (G:27.35% B:1.56%)
31.37% (G:5.43% B:0.21%)9. XG Roller++ 20/16 8/3* eq: +0.472 (0.097)
Player:
Opponent:66.98% (G:30.26% B:2.18%)
33.02% (G:7.21% B:0.32%)10. XG Roller++ 13/9 8/3* eq: +0.465 (0.104)
Player:
Opponent:65.66% (G:33.98% B:2.82%)
34.34% (G:8.75% B:0.63%)I had been waiting for bot info to be posted, then forgot about this thread.
Above is an XGR++ evaluation of Konstantin's original position. The best hitting play is กV.047.
Below are two variants (one that contrasts the original, and one cusp). The less strong White's board, the more willing Blue is to hit.
Nack
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 179Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBBBcBCCbeAb:1:1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 Variant 1
Compared to the original, White has no 3pt
1. Rollout^{1} 10/6 8/3* eq: +0.653
Player:
Opponent:70.99% (G:38.18% B:3.13%)
29.01% (G:5.76% B:0.25%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.648...+0.658)  [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 20/15 10/6 eq: +0.639 (0.014)
Player:
Opponent:73.70% (G:29.05% B:1.80%)
26.30% (G:3.69% B:0.14%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.634...+0.643)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes3. Rollout^{1} 20/16 13/8 eq: +0.632 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:73.37% (G:29.02% B:1.88%)
26.63% (G:3.65% B:0.14%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.628...+0.637)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes4. Rollout^{1} 13/8 10/6 eq: +0.626 (0.027)
Player:
Opponent:72.26% (G:31.60% B:2.08%)
27.74% (G:4.26% B:0.17%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.621...+0.630)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes5. Rollout^{1} 20/16 10/5 eq: +0.623 (0.030)
Player:
Opponent:73.03% (G:29.17% B:1.87%)
26.97% (G:3.84% B:0.15%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.618...+0.628)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes6. Rollout^{1} 10/6 10/5 eq: +0.611 (0.042)
Player:
Opponent:71.27% (G:33.37% B:2.19%)
28.73% (G:5.06% B:0.21%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.606...+0.616)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes7. Rollout^{1} 20/16 8/3* eq: +0.609 (0.044)
Player:
Opponent:70.93% (G:33.55% B:2.62%)
29.07% (G:5.22% B:0.22%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.604...+0.615)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes8. Rollout^{1} 13/9 8/3* eq: +0.609 (0.044)
Player:
Opponent:69.97% (G:36.76% B:3.20%)
30.03% (G:6.21% B:0.36%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.603...+0.614)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 167Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBBBcBCCbcAbb:1:1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 Variant 2
Compared to the original, White has her 1pt instead of 4pt
1. Rollout^{1} 10/6 8/3* eq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:73.39% (G:38.85% B:3.19%)
26.61% (G:6.71% B:0.20%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.706...+0.716)  [74.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 13/8 10/6 eq: +0.709 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:75.89% (G:30.64% B:1.94%)
24.11% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.704...+0.713)  [23.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes3. Rollout^{1} 20/15 10/6 eq: +0.706 (0.005)
Player:
Opponent:77.52% (G:26.20% B:1.25%)
22.48% (G:3.24% B:0.07%)Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.701...+0.710)  [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes4. Rollout^{1} 20/16 13/8 eq: +0.700 (0.011)
Player:
Opponent:77.28% (G:25.98% B:1.41%)
22.72% (G:3.23% B:0.08%)Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.697...+0.704)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes5. Rollout^{1} 20/16 10/5 eq: +0.693 (0.018)
Player:
Opponent:76.78% (G:26.78% B:1.46%)
23.22% (G:3.40% B:0.08%)Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.689...+0.697)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes6. Rollout^{1} 10/6 10/5 eq: +0.687 (0.024)
Player:
Opponent:74.06% (G:34.13% B:2.31%)
25.94% (G:5.57% B:0.14%)Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.683...+0.691)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes7. Rollout^{2} 13/4 eq: +0.665 (0.046)
Player:
Opponent:74.64% (G:29.97% B:1.81%)
25.36% (G:4.58% B:0.10%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.659...+0.672)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes8. Rollout^{2} 13/9 8/3* eq: +0.663 (0.048)
Player:
Opponent:72.41% (G:37.38% B:3.08%)
27.59% (G:7.54% B:0.35%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.656...+0.670)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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