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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2015, at 3:22 a.m.

In Response To: hit or not? why? why not? (konstantin)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBBcB-C--C---b-cAbb---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position


1.XG Roller++20/15 10/6eq: +0.569
Player:
Opponent:		71.77% (G:25.91% B:1.48%)
28.23% (G:3.89% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++20/16 13/8eq: +0.551 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		71.55% (G:24.72% B:1.39%)
28.45% (G:3.85% B:0.15%)
3.XG Roller++20/16 10/5eq: +0.549 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		71.11% (G:25.75% B:1.46%)
28.89% (G:4.06% B:0.16%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 10/6eq: +0.533 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		69.46% (G:28.69% B:1.79%)
30.54% (G:5.01% B:0.20%)
5.XG Roller++10/6 8/3* eq: +0.521 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		67.01% (G:35.20% B:2.75%)
32.99% (G:7.47% B:0.38%)
6.XG Roller++20/11eq: +0.511 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		70.75% (G:23.15% B:1.29%)
29.25% (G:4.33% B:0.16%)
7.XG Roller++10/6 10/5eq: +0.499 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		67.62% (G:31.01% B:2.01%)
32.38% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)
8.XG Roller++13/4eq: +0.493 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		68.63% (G:27.35% B:1.56%)
31.37% (G:5.43% B:0.21%)
9.XG Roller++20/16 8/3* eq: +0.472 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		66.98% (G:30.26% B:2.18%)
33.02% (G:7.21% B:0.32%)
10.XG Roller++13/9 8/3* eq: +0.465 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		65.66% (G:33.98% B:2.82%)
34.34% (G:8.75% B:0.63%)

I had been waiting for bot info to be posted, then forgot about this thread.

Above is an XGR++ evaluation of Konstantin's original position. The best hitting play is กV.047.

Below are two variants (one that contrasts the original, and one cusp). The less strong White's board, the more willing Blue is to hit.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBBcB-C--C---b-eAb----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, White has no 3pt


1.Rollout110/6 8/3* eq: +0.653
Player:
Opponent:		70.99% (G:38.18% B:3.13%)
29.01% (G:5.76% B:0.25%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.648...+0.658) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout120/15 10/6eq: +0.639 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		73.70% (G:29.05% B:1.80%)
26.30% (G:3.69% B:0.14%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.634...+0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
3.Rollout120/16 13/8eq: +0.632 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		73.37% (G:29.02% B:1.88%)
26.63% (G:3.65% B:0.14%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.628...+0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: +0.626 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		72.26% (G:31.60% B:2.08%)
27.74% (G:4.26% B:0.17%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.621...+0.630) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
5.Rollout120/16 10/5eq: +0.623 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		73.03% (G:29.17% B:1.87%)
26.97% (G:3.84% B:0.15%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.618...+0.628) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
6.Rollout110/6 10/5eq: +0.611 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		71.27% (G:33.37% B:2.19%)
28.73% (G:5.06% B:0.21%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.606...+0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
7.Rollout120/16 8/3* eq: +0.609 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		70.93% (G:33.55% B:2.62%)
29.07% (G:5.22% B:0.22%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.604...+0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
8.Rollout113/9 8/3* eq: +0.609 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		69.97% (G:36.76% B:3.20%)
30.03% (G:6.21% B:0.36%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.603...+0.614) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBBcB-C--C---b-cA-b-b-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White has her 1pt instead of 4pt


1.Rollout110/6 8/3* eq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:		73.39% (G:38.85% B:3.19%)
26.61% (G:6.71% B:0.20%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.706...+0.716) - [74.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: +0.709 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		75.89% (G:30.64% B:1.94%)
24.11% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.704...+0.713) - [23.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
3.Rollout120/15 10/6eq: +0.706 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		77.52% (G:26.20% B:1.25%)
22.48% (G:3.24% B:0.07%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.701...+0.710) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout120/16 13/8eq: +0.700 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		77.28% (G:25.98% B:1.41%)
22.72% (G:3.23% B:0.08%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.697...+0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
5.Rollout120/16 10/5eq: +0.693 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		76.78% (G:26.78% B:1.46%)
23.22% (G:3.40% B:0.08%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.689...+0.697) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
6.Rollout110/6 10/5eq: +0.687 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		74.06% (G:34.13% B:2.31%)
25.94% (G:5.57% B:0.14%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+0.683...+0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
7.Rollout213/4eq: +0.665 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		74.64% (G:29.97% B:1.81%)
25.36% (G:4.58% B:0.10%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.659...+0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
8.Rollout213/9 8/3* eq: +0.663 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		72.41% (G:37.38% B:3.08%)
27.59% (G:7.54% B:0.35%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.656...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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