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Money RO, and Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 23 December 2015, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Longer RO, overturn (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ab--F-B----D--Bacec----A:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position... (Money rollout)

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 13/10	eq: -0.543
	Player: Opponent: 39.72% (G:7.69% B:0.35%) 60.28% (G:28.18% B:0.75%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.549...-0.538) - [99.6%] Duration: 6 hours 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/11	eq: -0.557 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 39.22% (G:7.53% B:0.37%) 60.78% (G:29.35% B:0.83%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.008 (-0.564...-0.549) - [0.4%] Duration: 7 hours 20 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/22 16/14	eq: -0.615 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 38.56% (G:7.05% B:0.34%) 61.44% (G:29.52% B:1.16%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.019 (-0.634...-0.596) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 13 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Stick's original position was posted at a ¡V11¡V11 score. AtS, a 15k rollout favors Z (reverse split, bar/22 13/10) by .004.

Above is a Money rollout of the same position. The margin of Z over S is increased to .013.

Below are two variants that contrast with the original and with each other.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ab--F-B----D--Bbcdc----A:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/8

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/11	eq: -0.833
	Player: Opponent: 35.33% (G:7.06% B:0.36%) 64.67% (G:33.21% B:1.12%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.847...-0.819) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 16/14	eq: -0.882 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 34.68% (G:6.68% B:0.34%) 65.32% (G:33.14% B:1.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.014 (-0.896...-0.868) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/23 13/10	eq: -0.905 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 33.81% (G:7.14% B:0.35%) 66.19% (G:32.54% B:1.19%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.020 (-0.925...-0.885) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 14 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ab--F-C----C--Bacec----A:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 13/8

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 16/14	eq: -0.449
	Player: Opponent: 40.62% (G:7.61% B:0.41%) 59.38% (G:27.23% B:1.03%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.459...-0.440) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/11	eq: -0.478 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 40.63% (G:7.70% B:0.35%) 59.37% (G:27.21% B:0.79%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.485...-0.470) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/23 13/10	eq: -0.496 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 40.65% (G:8.16% B:0.36%) 59.35% (G:27.52% B:0.80%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.505...-0.488) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.	Rollout3	Bar/23 16/13	eq: -0.503 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 40.58% (G:6.88% B:0.31%) 59.42% (G:25.48% B:0.54%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.010 (-0.513...-0.493) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

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    ah_clem -- Thursday, 17 December 2015, at 5:13 p.m.
  • Random 32 to play - Analysis
    Stick -- Sunday, 20 December 2015, at 8:07 p.m.
    • Longer RO, overturn
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 21 December 2015, at 5:45 p.m.
      • Longer RO, overturn
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 21 December 2015, at 7:27 p.m.
        • Longer RO, overturn
          Stick -- Monday, 21 December 2015, at 7:58 p.m.
      • Longer RO, overturn
        Stick -- Monday, 21 December 2015, at 7:56 p.m.
      • Money RO, and Variants
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 23 December 2015, at 5:56 a.m.