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A Classic Choice

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 26 December 2015, at 2:43 p.m.

In Response To: A Classic Choice (Taper_Mike)

If we run out and are missed we cover with 23/36 rolls and another 10 rolls hit loose on the ace point. Assuming almost all covering numbers are wins that's about 15 wins right there. The loose hits on the ace point when we run, are missed, and failed to cover should still keep us a solid favorite, let's say 7/10 games. Of the games we're hit we'll still win about 1/4 of those so almost 3 games there. That seems to add up with some Q&D math magic to 69% after 21/11.

It is much harder for me to break down the hitting play in the same manner. I could try and likely fail so I'll just say this...I don't think it wins as much so I'll run 21/11.

Stick

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