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Nine Best Plays -- Part 1

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 28 December 2015, at 4:27 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 119 Unlimited Game pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB--A-bBb-B--eAcaa--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	20/15	eq: +0.596
	Player: Opponent: 66.62% (G:13.48% B:0.56%) 33.38% (G:10.41% B:0.22%) Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.582...+0.610) - [100.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/17 10/8	eq: +0.517 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 64.70% (G:16.42% B:0.91%) 35.30% (G:13.87% B:0.40%) Conf.: � 0.017 (+0.501...+0.534) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.479 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 64.22% (G:18.76% B:1.04%) 35.78% (G:16.24% B:0.77%) Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.466...+0.493) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.410 (-0.186)
	Player: Opponent: 61.54% (G:15.50% B:0.75%) 38.46% (G:12.82% B:0.39%) Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.398...+0.423) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
5.	Rollout1	10/5	eq: +0.394 (-0.202)
	Player: Opponent: 60.76% (G:16.05% B:0.80%) 39.24% (G:13.01% B:0.30%) Conf.: � 0.015 (+0.379...+0.409) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I tried several times to post this message in full but was kicked out. In case length is the problem, I am posting in two parts.

Above is Tim's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants (in a 2x2 grid, if you widen your window) that contrast with the original, and with each other. In a separate message, I will post four more such variants.

Between these two posts (part 1 and part 2), there are NINE related positions, each having a different best play.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB--A-bBb-B--eAca-a-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 2/1

1.	Rollout1	20/17 10/8	eq: +0.613
	Player: Opponent: 67.24% (G:15.39% B:0.75%) 32.76% (G:11.92% B:0.24%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.606...+0.620) - [99.3%] Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/15	eq: +0.601 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 66.89% (G:13.98% B:0.64%) 33.11% (G:11.72% B:0.25%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.593...+0.608) - [0.7%] Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/17 13/11	eq: +0.546 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 65.29% (G:15.41% B:0.85%) 34.71% (G:13.44% B:0.49%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (+0.531...+0.561) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 37 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 113 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB--A-bB--Bb-eAcaa--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 Compared to the original, White has her 8pt instead of 11pt

1.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.528
	Player: Opponent: 65.50% (G:15.91% B:0.88%) 34.50% (G:15.51% B:0.65%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.521...+0.534) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/15	eq: +0.474 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 64.20% (G:10.24% B:0.43%) 35.80% (G:11.93% B:0.22%) Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.468...+0.480) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
3.	Rollout2	16/14 16/13	eq: +0.453 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 64.03% (G:13.79% B:0.79%) 35.97% (G:16.60% B:0.46%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (+0.438...+0.467) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 133 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB--A-dBb-B--cAcaa--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/13(2)

1.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.656
	Player: Opponent: 66.11% (G:19.46% B:0.70%) 33.89% (G:9.10% B:0.33%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.648...+0.665) - [99.9%] Duration: 4 hours 15 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.639 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 65.81% (G:21.77% B:1.11%) 34.19% (G:12.50% B:0.64%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.632...+0.647) - [0.1%] Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/15	eq: +0.606 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 66.11% (G:16.78% B:0.64%) 33.89% (G:9.56% B:0.28%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.596...+0.615) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes
4.	Rollout3	10/5	eq: +0.583 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 64.56% (G:18.26% B:0.58%) 35.44% (G:8.92% B:0.25%) Conf.: กำ 0.013 (+0.570...+0.596) - [0.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 08 seconds
5.	Rollout3	13/11 10/7	eq: +0.568 (-0.088)
	Player: Opponent: 64.41% (G:20.56% B:0.90%) 35.59% (G:12.26% B:0.40%) Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.552...+0.584) - [0.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 22 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB-bA-bBb-B--cAcaa--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4 Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 6/16(2)

1.	Rollout1	10/5	eq: +0.615
	Player: Opponent: 63.63% (G:23.48% B:1.00%) 36.37% (G:10.15% B:0.32%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.607...+0.622) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.580 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 63.41% (G:21.93% B:1.13%) 36.59% (G:10.66% B:0.35%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.571...+0.588) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/17 10/8	eq: +0.564 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 63.50% (G:22.57% B:1.25%) 36.50% (G:11.60% B:0.41%) Conf.: กำ 0.018 (+0.546...+0.582) - [0.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 29 seconds
4.	Rollout2	10/7 6/4	eq: +0.559 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 62.72% (G:22.28% B:0.96%) 37.28% (G:10.90% B:0.34%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (+0.544...+0.574) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 38 seconds
5.	Rollout2	20/18 10/7	eq: +0.542 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 62.59% (G:21.18% B:1.11%) 37.41% (G:10.34% B:0.31%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (+0.527...+0.557) - [0.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 33 seconds
6.	Rollout2	20/15	eq: +0.517 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 62.95% (G:18.46% B:1.06%) 37.05% (G:10.83% B:0.30%) Conf.: กำ 0.016 (+0.501...+0.533) - [0.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 

Messages In This Thread

• This is some kind of priming or containment game, I guess
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 December 2015, at 10:00 p.m.
  • This is some kind of priming or containment game, I guess
    Keene -- Saturday, 19 December 2015, at 10:23 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 December 2015, at 11:11 p.m.
    • Nine Best Plays -- Part 1
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 28 December 2015, at 4:27 a.m.
    • Nine Best Plays -- Part 2
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 28 December 2015, at 5:24 a.m.
  • This is some kind of priming or containment game, I guess
    hominid -- Monday, 21 December 2015, at 9:47 p.m.