[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Risk tactics (it)

Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Monday, 28 December 2015, at 1:53 p.m.

In Response To: Risk tactics (it) (Christian Munk-Christensen)

I've just looked at the dice combinations and it seems to me it is always best to defend with 2 dice. When the attacker rolls 66 it breaks even if the defender uses 1 or 2 dice.

This is a surprise to me.

Intuitively most players, including me, will choose to defend with just one die if the attacker rolls something like a 65.

Example: attacker rolls 65.

Defender uses 1 die. In 36 experiments the attacker can expect to lose 6 armies and the defender can expect to lose 30 armies. This is a win/lose ratio of 6/30= 0,2.

Defender uses 2 dice. In 36 experiments the attacker can expect to lose 2 armies on the following 3 rolls: 66, 65. Defender and attacker can both expect to lose 1 on the following 9 rolls: 64, 63, 62, 61, 55. Defender loses 2 armies on 24 rolls: 54, 53, 52, 51, 44, 43, 42, 41, 33, 32, 31, 22, 21, 11. This is a win/lose ratio of 15/57=0,26.

0,26 is better than 0,2, so use 2 dice.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.