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Is this a cube decision?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 10:01 p.m.

In Response To: Is this a cube decision? (Keene)

Looks like big advantages in all fields, but the stacks are ugly. They cut down on our number of good rolls considerably. There are not many PoH / building numbers, so our main threat are hits and double hits, followed by a weak response. We have enough attackers in the zone to make the attack in face of 3 blots scary. At NMS I wouldn't double this though, as I don't think we will have enough market losers.

ATS homever, where our gammons get much more value, I'd double quick. I think we are definitely below 70 and definitely over 60 win %, with gammons being ca. 1/3 of our wins. Opp gammons are low, say 1/5 of his wins, so let's count 65% wins + 22% gammons for us and 35% wins + 7% for the opp.

Gv ATS (after double) is (100-80)/(80-50) = .75, so 1.5 times higher than usual.

This gives me equity (after double) of .65 + (.22 x 1.5) - .35 - .07 = .56 x 2 = 1.12 minus .2 (typical recube vig) = .92. Being that close to the take point in a volatile position should give us an easy cube.

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