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A Classic Choice - cube factor question

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 10:57 p.m.

In Response To: A Classic Choice - cube factor question (Karol Szczerek)

What a contrast!

I am not sure what the reason for the big swing is, but here are a couple of ideas.

  1. In your calculation, you use 1/3 instead of 30% as the hitting chance from the bar.
  2. You omitted gammons and backgammons. This may not have much of an effect. The pseudo-cubeless data in the rollouts show Blue's gammons are offset by White's.
  3. Your 1k rollout has a lot of variance. the 1-SE range is still about plus or minus 0.500.

I think there must be positional issues as well. Perhaps someone else will have a better explanation than mine.

Mike

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