What is White's true tp ATS? One way to estimate this is to ask what it would be if White auto recubes on his next shake. In that case:
Pass: 0-10 with 7% MWC. Take and lose: loses match with 0% MWC. Take and win: 8-8 with 50% MWC. Take and win a gammon: wins match with 100% MWC.
This gives a tp of 14% less 100% of his small g chances. If 1% g's, the tp is then 13%. The true tp is somewhat lower than this since White shouldn't recube right away after any of Blue's 25 numbers that make a full 6 prime. BTW, White is supposed to recube after any of Blue's other 11 numbers, even 65! Ignoring g's, the trailer's doubling window opens around 8% and closes at 55%.
So the trailer's true tp is probably around 11% or so (assuming 1% g's for White). It would be lower than 11% if White could offer an efficient recube but the chance of that looks remote starting from this position. I was Blue here vs. XG and couldn't decide if White had 11% or not, so the recube looked correct (even moreso given XG's skill advantage).
So it went R/T and the RO shows that it's just barely a redouble.
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| XGID=----aCCCBBA----A---bb-ddb-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 87.60% (G:5.65% B:0.11%) | 88.24% (G:5.62% B:0.24%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 12.40% (G:1.83% B:0.01%) | 11.76% (G:1.61% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.773 | +1.260 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.909 (-0.010) | ±0.002 (+0.907..+0.912) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.920 | ±0.006 (+0.914..+0.926) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.080) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.9% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 47 minutes 35 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2