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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 9:07 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

What is White's true tp ATS? One way to estimate this is to ask what it would be if White auto recubes on his next shake. In that case:

Pass: 0-10 with 7% MWC. Take and lose: loses match with 0% MWC. Take and win: 8-8 with 50% MWC. Take and win a gammon: wins match with 100% MWC.

This gives a tp of 14% less 100% of his small g chances. If 1% g's, the tp is then 13%. The true tp is somewhat lower than this since White shouldn't recube right away after any of Blue's 25 numbers that make a full 6 prime. BTW, White is supposed to recube after any of Blue's other 11 numbers, even 65! Ignoring g's, the trailer's doubling window opens around 8% and closes at 55%.

So the trailer's true tp is probably around 11% or so (assuming 1% g's for White). It would be lower than 11% if White could offer an efficient recube but the chance of that looks remote starting from this position. I was Blue here vs. XG and couldn't decide if White had 11% or not, so the recube looked correct (even moreso given XG's skill advantage).

So it went R/T and the RO shows that it's just barely a redouble.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
13 point match
pip: 113
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 87.60% (G:5.65% B:0.11%) 88.24% (G:5.62% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 12.40% (G:1.83% B:0.01%) 11.76% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.773 +1.260
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.909 (-0.010)0.002 (+0.907..+0.912)
Redouble/Take:+0.9200.006 (+0.914..+0.926)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.080)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 47 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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