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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 6:54 a.m.

In Response To: 21 to play (same match) (Keene)

		White is Allen Tish score: 3 pip: 125 9 point match pip: 127 score: 4 Blue is Keene Marin
XGID=a-B---EBB-A-dA---abcB-b-b-:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	7/5 6/5	eq: +0.3758
	Player: Opponent: 58.80% (G:24.37% B:0.53%) 41.20% (G:9.75% B:0.34%) Conf.: �0.0090 (+0.3669...+0.3848) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10	eq: +0.2681 (-0.1077)
	Player: Opponent: 56.55% (G:15.26% B:0.31%) 43.45% (G:6.46% B:0.23%) Conf.: �0.0113 (+0.2568...+0.2795) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
3.	4-ply	13/11 10/9	eq: +0.1613 (-0.2145)
	Player: Opponent: 53.45% (G:14.49% B:0.23%) 46.55% (G:6.77% B:0.16%)
4.	4-ply	13/11 8/7	eq: +0.0585 (-0.3173)
	Player: Opponent: 50.91% (G:13.02% B:0.20%) 49.09% (G:7.33% B:0.19%)
5.	3-ply	10/7	eq: +0.0262 (-0.3496)
	Player: Opponent: 50.70% (G:11.74% B:0.27%) 49.30% (G:6.70% B:0.13%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Keene's rollout of the original position.

Below are two variants. Variant 1 shows that not even a fourth point in White's board should deter Blue from making his 5pt.

Variant 2 manages to achieve a contrast by removing a spare from Blue's tall 6pt and turning it into another blot.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 119 9 point match pip: 127 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B---EBB-A-dA----bbBbb-b-:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10
Variant 1 Compared to the original, White has made her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	7/5 6/5	eq: +0.072
	Player: Opponent: 50.71% (G:17.61% B:0.35%) 49.29% (G:12.47% B:0.47%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.064...+0.079) - [100.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10	eq: +0.041 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 50.79% (G:11.87% B:0.25%) 49.21% (G:7.17% B:0.24%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.034...+0.048) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 125 9 point match pip: 130 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B---DBBAA-dA---abcB-b-b-:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10
Variant 2 Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/9

1.	Rollout1	13/11 10/9	eq: +0.368
	Player: Opponent: 58.31% (G:18.19% B:0.39%) 41.69% (G:6.62% B:0.23%) Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.363...+0.373) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/10	eq: +0.348 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 58.00% (G:17.69% B:0.39%) 42.00% (G:7.02% B:0.29%) Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.343...+0.354) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
3.	Rollout2	7/5 6/5	eq: +0.339 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 58.16% (G:23.91% B:0.59%) 41.84% (G:11.28% B:0.48%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.333...+0.346) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 34 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 21 to play (same match)
  Keene -- Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 7:47 p.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    Sean Garber -- Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 8:04 p.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 9:24 p.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 9:40 p.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    johnk -- Friday, 1 January 2016, at 12:44 a.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    hominid -- Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
  • 21 to play (same match)
    Keene -- Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 5:03 p.m.
    • Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 6:54 a.m.