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Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 6:54 a.m.
In Response To: 21 to play (same match) (Keene)
White is Allen Tish
score: 3
pip: 1259 point match pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Keene MarinXGID=aBEBBAdAabcBbb:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10 Original Position
1. Rollout^{1} 7/5 6/5 eq: +0.3758
Player:
Opponent:58.80% (G:24.37% B:0.53%)
41.20% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)Conf.: �0.0090 (+0.3669...+0.3848)  [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 13/10 eq: +0.2681 (0.1077)
Player:
Opponent:56.55% (G:15.26% B:0.31%)
43.45% (G:6.46% B:0.23%)Conf.: �0.0113 (+0.2568...+0.2795)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds3. 4ply 13/11 10/9 eq: +0.1613 (0.2145)
Player:
Opponent:53.45% (G:14.49% B:0.23%)
46.55% (G:6.77% B:0.16%)4. 4ply 13/11 8/7 eq: +0.0585 (0.3173)
Player:
Opponent:50.91% (G:13.02% B:0.20%)
49.09% (G:7.33% B:0.19%)5. 3ply 10/7 eq: +0.0262 (0.3496)
Player:
Opponent:50.70% (G:11.74% B:0.27%)
49.30% (G:6.70% B:0.13%)^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerAbove is Keene's rollout of the original position.
Below are two variants. Variant 1 shows that not even a fourth point in White's board should deter Blue from making his 5pt.
Variant 2 manages to achieve a contrast by removing a spare from Blue's tall 6pt and turning it into another blot.
Nack
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 1199 point match pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBEBBAdAbbBbbb:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10 Variant 1
Compared to the original, White has made her 4pt
1. Rollout^{1} 7/5 6/5 eq: +0.072
Player:
Opponent:50.71% (G:17.61% B:0.35%)
49.29% (G:12.47% B:0.47%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.064...+0.079)  [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 32 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 13/10 eq: +0.041 (0.031)
Player:
Opponent:50.79% (G:11.87% B:0.25%)
49.21% (G:7.17% B:0.24%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.034...+0.048)  [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 1259 point match pip: 130
score: 4
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBDBBAAdAabcBbb:0:0:1:21:4:3:0:9:10 Variant 2
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/9
1. Rollout^{1} 13/11 10/9 eq: +0.368
Player:
Opponent:58.31% (G:18.19% B:0.39%)
41.69% (G:6.62% B:0.23%)Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.363...+0.373)  [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 13/10 eq: +0.348 (0.020)
Player:
Opponent:58.00% (G:17.69% B:0.39%)
42.00% (G:7.02% B:0.29%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.343...+0.354)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 7/5 6/5 eq: +0.339 (0.029)
Player:
Opponent:58.16% (G:23.91% B:0.59%)
41.84% (G:11.28% B:0.48%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.333...+0.346)  [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 34 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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