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Contrasting Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:34 p.m.

In Response To: Contrasting Variant (Casper Van der Tak)

What is the main factor here that causes the switch? The change in the race (making splitting more attractive) or White's slightly worse attack (especially considering how an immediate 11 and 55 play)?

It's the latter. In particular, when White hits with a 5 or 2 (and your 11 counts as a 2), she lacks a valuable builder on her 6pt.

As you point out, 11 and 55 are big swings. As they count twice, some non-doublets are even bigger (32, 21 and 54, I think). Also large are 65, 53 and 51 (52 less so), and probably 64 as well.

BTW, though the smaller factor, the 2 pips in the race is also a timing issue. If Blue stays back on his 24pt, it is that much harder to pull off a win by White eventually breaking her 18pt before Blue breaks his midpoint.

Hope that helps.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 12:35 a.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    Chase -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 3:36 a.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 6:32 a.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 8:48 a.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    Mick Z -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 1:44 p.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    hominid -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 4:31 p.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    johnk -- Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 7:28 p.m.
  • Rollout and commentary
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 2:36 a.m.
    • Contrasting Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:36 a.m.
      • Contrasting Variant
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 8:47 a.m.
        • Contrasting Variant
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:34 p.m.
          • Contrasting Variant
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:37 p.m.
      • Another Variant
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Another Variant
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 9:58 p.m.
  • Risky-looking split: Do you or don't you?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 2:41 a.m.