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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 10 January 2016, at 10:01 p.m.

In Response To: JASBRA (Just Another Score-Based Recube Action) (Timothy Chow)

I thought I had enough for a redouble here (and a fish MET would undoubtedly agree since I was playing XG) but the rollout says NRD.

In the variant I have a direct shot at White's outfield blot.
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-A--AbB-a--bcbbCb--:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.56% (G:18.00% B:0.82%) 52.02% (G:18.76% B:1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.44% (G:15.60% B:1.42%) 47.98% (G:18.35% B:4.99%)
Cubeless Equities +0.064 +0.470
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.463±0.011 (+0.452..+0.474)
Redouble/Take:+0.389 (-0.074)±0.015 (+0.374..+0.403)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.537)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 114
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-A--AbB--a-bcbbCb--:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.61% (G:23.00% B:1.24%) 58.10% (G:24.19% B:2.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.39% (G:12.84% B:1.04%) 41.90% (G:14.84% B:3.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.281 +0.898
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.707 (-0.125)±0.011 (+0.696..+0.717)
Redouble/Take:+0.832±0.015 (+0.818..+0.847)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.168)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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