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BGonline.org Forums
Hey, wow, I get to play on!! (2-away post-Crawford)
Posted By: scotty In Response To: Hey, wow, I get to play on!! (2-away post-Crawford) (Timothy Chow)
Date: Monday, 11 January 2016, at 11:47 p.m.
hit two! When the trailer at 2a1a pc opens with 31 or 42, there are a lot replies from the leader that make the trailer too good to double. All of those replies involve the leader leaving a blot or two.
I was investigating several of these last month. I used GNU 4ply for checker and cube, and looked at the 24 opening for the trailer.
The trailer is too good after the following replies (according to GNU 4ply) 64, 63, 62, 54, 52, 51, 43, 41, 32, 21. In all cases, except one, the equity error in doubling was less than .010, suggesting that many of these cases would be overturned by rollouts. In the 10 or so samples that I looked at, the games quickly resolved to a position of double/take or double/pass, usually within 2 or 3 rolls. When I get around to looking at TG for the 31 opening, I'll report my results back here. Note that I'm using GNU 4ply. Reliable rollouts on my machine will be ready sometime in the year 2100! :D
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