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42P-55-2aP RO

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Wednesday, 13 January 2016, at 2:33 p.m.

In Response To: Hey, wow, I get to play on!! (2-away post-Crawford) (David Rockwell)

It turns out that this is D/P, but it is very close. I did a 5K RO using XGR+ for the cube. The equity for no double is .9868. (This doesn't show on the post.) When Dmitriy and I have done these rollouts, higher parameters have usually increased the equity of playing TG. So, using XGR++ for cube might push this into TG territory. As a practical matter, this should be played TG since no one knows what they are doing at this score.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
2 point match
pip: 167
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:55:1:0:0:2:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -1.0000
Player:
Opponent:
46.47% (G:17.78% B:2.66%)
53.53% (G:16.85% B:2.08%)
Conf.: ±0.0047 (-1.0047...-0.9953)
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 50922698
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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