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PUZZLE: Unluckiest snake eyes

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 15 January 2016, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: PUZZLE: Unluckiest snake eyes (roadkillbooks)

I had pretty much the same idea as Roadklllbooks. I wasn't sure my equities were right because the cube action of the second position is coming up with "Invalid Cube," but I'll post the position pair anyway (below).

[EMG loss of 2.940, according to XGR++ evaluation.]

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-a-a-a-aaaaacAbAbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 94.88% (G:91.09% B:65.93%) 94.90% (G:91.18% B:66.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 5.12% (G:0.72% B:0.04%) 5.10% (G:0.72% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +2.460 +4.931
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+2.472
Redouble/Take:+4.886 (+2.414)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-1.472)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 37.9%







White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCBC--a-a-a-aaaaacAbAbA-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.57% (G:25.93% B:1.51%) 72.57% (G:25.93% B:1.51%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.43% (G:16.44% B:4.27%) 27.43% (G:16.44% B:4.27%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.519 +1.037
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.468 (-0.468)
Redouble/Take:+0.936
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.064)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

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