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Cube Problem

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2016, at 9:03 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Problem (Stick)

Cube is automatic to me with the shot at second blot and 3pt. board. With that ugly spare distribution and holes in the board and only 1 direct I wouldn't think about being anywhere close to too good.

So the main question is for the receiving side. Doubler has big advantage, but with his structure I don't think he's over 70%. I'd judge ca. 30% for the receiver. This gives .7 - .3 = .4 equity for the doubler before gammons. He needs over .6 to make it a pass (.6 x 2 (dbl) = 1.2 minus typical vig .2 = 1.0). So he needs over 20% gammons.

With better structure I'd give him ca. half gammon wins, but here I'd say he's on the ca. 1/3 level. So 23-25%. Enough to make it a small pass.

Double/Pass.

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