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Rollout
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: A big racing lead just got bigger (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 6:28 p.m.
I was quite surprised to see XG recommend paying now with a triple shot, given that Blue really just wants to race. It seems that the plays are close at DMP; 13/3 is essentially a bet that Blue won't have to pay at all, and that's a bit optimistic. For money, it seems that inviting a gammonish blot-hitting contest favors Blue.
I didn't roll out 6/1(2); perhaps someone else can do that (also at DMP).
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164Unlimited Game pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=--BBA-BbC-b-dC---c-cBa----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 55
1. Rollout1 20/15(2) 13/8(2) eq: +0.152
Player:
Opponent:59.87% (G:18.98% B:0.40%)
40.13% (G:7.70% B:0.34%)Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.140...+0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds2. Rollout1 20/15(2) 13/3 eq: +0.111 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:59.62% (G:14.91% B:0.25%)
40.38% (G:7.34% B:0.36%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.100...+0.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
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