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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 6:28 p.m.

In Response To: A big racing lead just got bigger (Timothy Chow)

I was quite surprised to see XG recommend paying now with a triple shot, given that Blue really just wants to race. It seems that the plays are close at DMP; 13/3 is essentially a bet that Blue won't have to pay at all, and that's a bit optimistic. For money, it seems that inviting a gammonish blot-hitting contest favors Blue.

I didn't roll out 6/1(2); perhaps someone else can do that (also at DMP).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBA-BbC-b-dC---c-cBa----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout120/15(2) 13/8(2)eq: +0.152
Player:
Opponent:
59.87% (G:18.98% B:0.40%)
40.13% (G:7.70% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.140...+0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout120/15(2) 13/3eq: +0.111 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
59.62% (G:14.91% B:0.25%)
40.38% (G:7.34% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.100...+0.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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