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Stab with 22 - eval, ro 3ply/xgr

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: Stab with 22 (Karol Szczerek)

Thanks for all the input so far.

I really struggle to understand this position.
A hand RO might be needed.

Below is the standard rollout and evaluations for comparison.
I'm not sure these ro's settings give a reasonable advice, since the evals are so wildly off at the levels used in the ro.

Looking at the % breakdowns it looks like cube plays a big role.

If You have any suggestions what settings to roll next, I might try it.
I'm running a 3-ply/XGR with cube at opp's side right now.
I'm thinking XGR+/XGR+ trunc-7 ro next.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 128 13 point match pip: 131 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBCBBB-a----b---badbCb--A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 3/1*(2)	eq: +0,451
	Player: Opponent: 53,21% (G:32,09% B:0,95%) 46,79% (G:14,22% B:0,51%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,442...+0,459) - [100,0%] Duration: 29 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 5/1* 3/1	eq: +0,412 (-0,038)
	Player: Opponent: 53,38% (G:34,26% B:1,26%) 46,62% (G:14,89% B:0,63%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,410...+0,415) - [0,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 3/1*(3)	eq: +0,390 (-0,060)
	Player: Opponent: 53,44% (G:31,07% B:0,79%) 46,56% (G:12,85% B:0,51%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (+0,380...+0,400) - [0,0%] Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

1. 2-ply Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,445 Player: Opponent: 53,63% (G:31,82% B:1,04%) 46,37% (G:11,67% B:0,34%) 2. 2-ply Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,425 (-0,019) Player: Opponent: 53,69% (G:36,45% B:1,87%) 46,31% (G:14,90% B:0,51%) 3. 2-ply Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,119 (-0,325) Player: Opponent: 48,60% (G:27,80% B:1,17%) 51,40% (G:15,74% B:0,40%)	1. 3-ply Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,420 Player: Opponent: 54,08% (G:34,63% B:1,19%) 45,92% (G:14,31% B:0,60%) 2. 3-ply Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,320 (-0,100) Player: Opponent: 52,16% (G:29,56% B:0,80%) 47,84% (G:12,33% B:0,43%) 3. 3-ply Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,241 (-0,179) Player: Opponent: 52,01% (G:31,85% B:1,03%) 47,99% (G:14,64% B:0,53%)
1. XG Roller Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,420 Player: Opponent: 53,66% (G:36,43% B:1,87%) 46,34% (G:14,85% B:0,51%) 2. XG Roller Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,327 (-0,093) Player: Opponent: 51,97% (G:29,99% B:0,98%) 48,03% (G:12,62% B:0,52%) 3. XG Roller Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,158 (-0,262) Player: Opponent: 51,20% (G:30,42% B:1,35%) 48,80% (G:14,70% B:0,54%)	1. 4-ply Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,420 Player: Opponent: 52,90% (G:32,77% B:1,30%) 47,10% (G:14,44% B:0,58%) 2. 4-ply Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,312 (-0,108) Player: Opponent: 50,95% (G:29,89% B:1,23%) 49,05% (G:14,89% B:0,49%) 3. 4-ply Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,301 (-0,120) Player: Opponent: 51,70% (G:29,09% B:0,84%) 48,30% (G:12,59% B:0,45%)
1. XG Roller+ Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,416 Player: Opponent: 54,10% (G:34,62% B:1,15%) 45,90% (G:14,21% B:0,61%) 2. XG Roller+ Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,411 (-0,005) Player: Opponent: 52,15% (G:31,23% B:1,15%) 47,85% (G:14,19% B:0,49%) 3. XG Roller+ Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,361 (-0,056) Player: Opponent: 52,73% (G:30,15% B:0,88%) 47,27% (G:12,47% B:0,53%)	1. XG Roller++ Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 eq: +0,415 Player: Opponent: 52,84% (G:32,77% B:1,32%) 47,16% (G:14,33% B:0,58%) 2. XG Roller++ Bar/21 3/1*(2) eq: +0,411 (-0,004) Player: Opponent: 52,28% (G:31,35% B:1,18%) 47,72% (G:13,91% B:0,49%) 3. XG Roller++ Bar/23 3/1*(3) eq: +0,354 (-0,061) Player: Opponent: 52,51% (G:30,25% B:0,93%) 47,49% (G:12,47% B:0,51%)

Messages In This Thread

• Stab with 22
  Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 25 January 2016, at 10:03 p.m.
  • Stab with 22
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 2:38 a.m.
    • Stab with 22
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 11:54 a.m.
      • Stab with 22
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 8:43 p.m.
  • Stab with 22
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 12:12 p.m.
  • Stab with 22
    Keene -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Stab with 22 - eval, ro 3ply/xgr
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 26 January 2016, at 10:48 p.m.
    • Stab with 22 - eval, ro 3ply/xgr
      Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 27 January 2016, at 12:26 p.m.
      • A cube RO
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 January 2016, at 5:16 p.m.
    • Stab with 22 - RO XGR+/XGR+ trunc@7 cube centered
      Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 28 January 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
  • Stab with 22 - RO 3ply/XGR cube away; RO XGR+/XGR+ trunc@7 cube away
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 27 January 2016, at 9:38 p.m.