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I found the 2nd best play, can you do better?

Posted By: Colin Owen
Date: Wednesday, 27 January 2016, at 5:05 p.m.

In Response To: I found the 2nd best play, can you do better? (Michael Depreli)

In that case the ND is excusable (see below). OTOH, if he's stronger than you - double; if he's weaker - double (might pass).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=---aBBB-DA-BbB-a-aadbab---:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.194% (G:8.314% B:0.307%) 71.992% (G:7.832% B:0.334%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.806% (G:4.440% B:0.139%) 28.008% (G:4.441% B:0.173%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4603 +0.9130
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6831±0.0015 (+0.6816..+0.6845)
Double/Take:+0.6818 (-0.0013)±0.0020 (+0.6797..+0.6838)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3169)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.4%
Rollout details
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48986906
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:84.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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