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I found the 2nd best play, can you do better?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 27 January 2016, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: I found the 2nd best play, can you do better? (Colin Owen)

I disagree that one should double a weaker player there. Seeing that only need 0.4% chance of a wrong pass to make the double correct can be very deceiving for at least two reasons.

1) Taking the skill difference into account the error in doubling can be much larger. Another factor here is that things go well here your opponent will not have many tough decisions so don't get a boost from that.

2) The 0.4% value assumes that the rest of the game is played out correctly. In particular it does not give any value to the chance of opponent making a cubing error later which clearly is a bad assumption if the reason for cubing is that you hope he makes a cube error now.

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